How are we faring in Washtenaw County as far as market absorption?
A quick run of the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors MLS data for single family properties (includes duplicate listings due to multiple board insertions) shows mixed trends. To read the chart below, the data is arrayed by area, the number of prior closed sales in the last year, supply based on these sales (only includes available properties), total number of listings, those that are reporting as available, those under contract, and the contract to listing ratio.
I have found the contract-to-listing ratio (CTLR) the most meaningful in measuring how a market is faring, and consider anything under 20% to be a buyers’ market, between 21-34% balanced, and over 35% as a sellers’ market. Based on this information three markets are showing as sellers’ markets, those being Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor and Chelsea are tilting towards a sellers’ market, and Manchester, Dexter and Saline are showing balance.
Based on the total number of sales in the past year, compared to what is currently available, Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti again are all showing less than two months of inventory, which helps support the thesis of a sellers’ market in these areas. Ann Arbor has less than three months inventory, while Chelsea, Manchester and Dexter are showing around 3.5 months in general. Saline shows close to five months’ worth of inventory, but my suspicion is that much of this relates to a larger number of “to be built” offerings in Saline as there are a number of new subdivisions under construction that are inputting offerings into the MLS. This may be the case as well in Ann Arbor and Chelsea, where new subdivisions are underway.
As we head into the fall, and new school year, the markets tend to slow down, and there is evidence based on this larger data, that this is the case with some areas. Of course, this information is “macro” data in that it includes each entire school district as opposed to the sub-markets within each one. I plan on running this type of information monthly for this blog, so we can compare how markets track over time. Please feel free to share the information gathered, and if you want to subscribe to my email distribution list, let me know, or sign up to follow my blog at https://annarborappraisal.blog/. I am always available to chat or assist with your appraisal needs.