A bit of color in some charts for your reading pleasure.
This information is from the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors MLS run on a monthly basis, and includes all the Ann Arbor school district, single family detached housing only, no new construction or to be built, no condominium units. Data tracks from 1/1/19 forward and it includes several things that we watch as appraisers. Each has a small blurb before the chart.
1st is sales volume on a monthly basis. As expected, the market shows seasonality. Market is typically slowest towards winter and increases in the spring. It is easy to see below, except for the April and May 2020 figures, reflecting the shutdown at the beginning of the pandemic. Interesting, yes?
The next chart is the median sales price monthly. Obviously, there are variances in size, which could affect sales price, and it is addressed as we move through this exercise. The data below shows a gradual rise in price, not a stratospheric rise. For example, January 2019 had 37 sales with the median sales price of $405,000 whereas January 2021 had 47 sales with a median sales price of $368,000 but February 2021 (up to today, 2/26) had a median sales price of $440,000. It is fluctuating.
Monthly median gross living area above grade shows overall pretty level with ebbs and flows, as expected.
Monthly price per square foot does not show much of an increase. This is really interesting.
Monthly median list to sales price ratio showing the negotiated median off the final list price does not show the overheated range we are seeing a lot, with some months seeing upwards of 5% negotiation off final list price, while others exceed 100%. Go figure.
Monthly median days on market were trending upward prior to the pandemic, then many houses were pulled from the market, which is easy to see in March 2020. So far this month the median days on the market have increased to 30, which is interesting based on the lack of supply. My guess is that there is some aspirational pricing going on which causes those houses that are shooting for the stars to sit on the market longer.
Contract to listing ratio is the number of houses that are showing under contract compared to the total number of listings, and although it is showing a sellers’ market in Ann Arbor, is not showing an overwhelming one.
Finally, to really become a geeky data analyst, if you look at the same information on an annualized basis, the market looks like it is increasing at an exponential rate.
January 2020 (1 years’ worth of sales) had a median sales price of $392,000 whereas January 2021 had a median price of $411,000, and so far, this month $415,000. That translates to an increase in median sales price of 5.87% in the past 14.5 months. At the same time however, median size has increased by 2.29%, meaning that increase, which is real, is only 3.58% when factoring the change in size.
All this information is to show that using market trends data published through the MLS may not paint a true picture. If you break it down to even a larger area such as the entire Ann Arbor school district and exclude the new construction (which have the effect of showing an artificial increase), we are increasing, but not the way that we might expect.
Please feel free to share, debate with me, whatever 😊. If you share my information, please just provide reference where the data came from; that of the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors, as compiled by Rachel Massey.