When it is slow…

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The blogosphere is ablaze with tales of woe, with appraisers saying how little work they have and how slow it is in their areas. It is amusing (in a sad way) when one thinks of the past couple years push towards lightening requirements to become an appraiser. This was done because of a perceived shortage. Many appraisers were saying there is no shortage, and the current lack of work in much of the United States is part and parcel the effect of that truth. This is not a piece about the reduction in requirements for become an appraiser, but instead one about what we can do that is constructive, during this slow time.

 

Slow times happen. Having been in the appraisal profession since 1989, I personally have experienced at least three very slow times. One time was so bad, that I was fortunate to be able to procure a couple of assignments per month.  Others were not so bad, but definitely put a stress on finances and being able to pay for the necessities of life. One of the very real problems with slow times, is that we tend to have little reserves set aside that we can use to improve ourselves, but there are options that do not involve a lot of money. Some of the things we can do during these slow times are expensive, but also help set us up for better positions when the market improves.

 

What are the things we can do when we find ourselves twiddling our thumbs for lack of work?

 

We can consider learning how to become a public speaker. Toastmasters is a great way to start. There are many opportunities for appraisers to speak in the public realm, from talking with Realtors; to meet and greets with lenders; to attorney function; to teaching courses.  Toastmasters offers a structured environment to practice and advance through a series of assignments and feedback that help polish the presenter.  Afraid of public speaking?  Most people are.  Start small. Start with groups of real estate agents in a more informal setting.  We may find that this is not something that we want to pursue, but it does open doors to different types of work.

 

Read – Read appraisal texts that outline a problem that you have encountered in the past and want a better way to solve. There are many excellent appraisal texts that are available, including the extensive library found at the Appraisal Institute.  There are also countless articles that are found online that can be printed and saved for later reference.  Never underestimate the enjoyment that can be found in reading something that is not real estate or appraisal related as well.  Now might be the time to tuck into a good novel or two.

 

Pursue a designation – No one comes out of the womb knowing how to appraise. We all have something to learn. Many designation paths are very education intensive, and put the candidate to the test of really being able to show what they know, and what they do not know. Consider buckling down to a course of study that will be intensive, frustrating, but ultimately extremely rewarding.  Some that have considerable study materials and course work are the Appraisal Institutes designations, and also the American Society of Appraisers.  Take a look at the resources at the end of this post and consider doing what it takes to earn a designation.

 

Blog – Appraisers are writers. We are technical communicators when all is said and done. We take a problem, complete an analysis that helps us solve the problem, and then express in writing what we did to solve it. If you like to write, consider blogging.  There are so many topics that can be tackled, such as giving market updates in your specific area of expertise, writing about a particular problem or observation, or any of a myriad of ideas that can pop into your head.  Blogging can be fun and is inexpensive, and a great outlet for those who are slow with work but want to write about what they see.

 

Take classes – Expand your knowledge base. Did you always want to learn about solar energy and how to value solar panels or other high-performance improvements? There are classes for that.  Did you want to learn how to expand your services into doing expert testimony?  There are classes for that too. Interested in doing eminent domain work? You guessed it, there are classes for that as well.

 

Vacation – It seems whenever we schedule time off, the flood gates open and work comes rushing in. I am not saying that we schedule something in order to have work come in, but Murphy’s Law does seem to come into play with this for some reason. We are often too busy to take time off, so when it is slow, why not?  Even if we lack the funds, there are small vacations that we can take close to home. How about a day trip into wine country?  Fancy craft beers? What about having a designated driver take you and a few friends to the different breweries within a few hours drive?  How about a museum tour at the local university?  Maybe rent a cabin in the woods for a couple of days and simply unplug?

 

Help each other – I was recently a casualty in a reduction of force. Because of that I have very few clients, and trying to get on panels in a down market is like pulling teeth. Many appraisers I know are helping me by referring me to their contacts at different lenders in order to provide that personal touch. Others are referring work they do not want to take.  This is one way to help each other.  Another way is to be available to bounce ideas off of, or even walk somebody through a problem. I had a very kind man help me sort out where I should focus my efforts in marketing, and in developing a new business model. Be there for other professionals. It always returns in spades.

 

 

When it is slow, sometimes we resort to behaviors that may not be wise in the end.  It can be very difficult to remain positive when assaulted from all sides, particularly negative press in the media, and the whittling away at appraisal fees from clients.

 

Too much whining – a bit of whining does not hurt. It feels good to commiserate with others, but try to keep it to a minimum. Also, try to keep it off the internet if possible.  Admittedly I am guilty as charged about whining, but am aware of it and try to stop it.  It is tough out there, and it is hard to come to grasp with spending an entire professional career to improving yourself, only to see that some clients do not care. Instead of worrying about them however, find the clients who do care. They are out there, and part of the work we need to do when it is slow is identifying them and making the introductions.

 

Spiraling into negativity – this is part and parcel of the same problem of too much whining.  One of the problems with the various Facebook groups and internet forums is that we read conspiracy theories (some of which may well be true) and put our own thoughts into them which can turn into a death spiral of negativity. Cut that out!!!!

 

Cutting fees – everyone does what they need to do to survive, but in my 29 plus years as an appraiser, I have never found cutting fees to get work to be the answer. There is always someone willing to go lower, and it becomes another form of death spiral, plus it is hard to pull back out of when things improve.  Figure out what your time is worth and charge accordingly.

 

Having been through several cycles of decline in workload, I can offer the glimmer of hope, that it is a cycle we are in.  The market in general goes in cycles, and we are likely at the top of a long upward climb in prices and activity. Interest rates had been held low for such a long time, that when they started ticking upward as they needed to do, a lot of work simply ceased to be. Prices may end up ticking downward, which could then spur more activity, and we will be busy again. People sell, and need appraisals. Homeowners take new jobs and relocation work picks up. We all die, and estate appraisals are needed. People do not always get along, and dissolution appraisals are required.  At some point we will all be so busy that we will again be turning away work. Until then, do something to advance your career.  Good luck with everything, and stay positive.

 

Resources

 

Toastmasters https://www.toastmasters.org/

Appraisal Institute https://www.appraisalinstitute.org/

American Society of Appraisers http://www.appraisers.org/

 

 

 

Ann Arbor snapshot

So many ways to measure

Markets are rarely identical and what happens as a nation isn’t necessarily what happens in a county, or what happens in an area, or even a submarket.

We hear a lot about the improving market conditions that are occurring nationally, but as in all things real estate, the market really is fundamentally local. I live and work in the Ann Arbor market. Not all markets within this area are moving in the same direction, or at the same pace. Even within Ann Arbor there are differences, and the data below represents current information comparing the Ann Arbor school district as a whole to one area within Ann Arbor, area 82, which encompasses a wide market but is the west side of town as well as into the western suburbs and rural area within the Ann Arbor school district.

How can you go about measuring the market? There are a number of different ways, but what I am doing now (and I do change things up as I learn of new techniques) is taking one years’ worth of data at a time, run on a monthly basis and compare and measure how markets change. The data is run as one year periods because it neutralizes the seasonality that you see happening in this area. It is almost clock-work to see our local market start to slow after Labor Day, and to start to pick up in February or March, depending on the weather. In addition to measuring year to year, I have also eliminated from the data below distress sales and “to-be-built” properties because including them skews data. This is addressed in a previous blog post. Depending on the market, it might make sense to include the distress sales but Ann Arbor hasn’t had a lot in general (Thank You University of Michigan) and if they are included the market actually looks like it is picked up more steam than it truly has. Apples-to-Apples with the data below.

My findings are in graphic formats below with a small explanation underneath the graph.

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Number of sales

We are seeing an increasing number of sales in both the entire market and area 82. For instance, the one year period of 2011 showed 805 arm’s length sales, and in 2012 there were 939 sales, 2013 had 1,054 sales for the year. Clearly the numbers of sales are increasing. In area 82 our market jumped from 210 sales in 2011 to 260 in 2012 and 299 in 2012. Based on this information the expectation is around 88 sales per month for the entire market and 25 per month for area 82. As there are 139 available properties in the MLS for the entire school district today (2/9/14) and 36 in area 82, there is about a 1.6-month supply for the overall market and 1.45-month supply for area 82. Looks like an undersupply of properties, doesn’t it?

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Days on market

The chart above shows the differences in days on the market in both the wider Ann Arbor market and area 82. Area 82 consistently has had quicker absorption than Ann Arbor as a whole, but take a look at how the market dipped in both segments to a low point in June/July 2013 and has been increasing steadily since that time. My take on this is that as inventory has increased (as evidenced by the number of sales above) that there are more options and therefore houses are not selling quite as quickly as they were at the peak in 2013. At this time days on market is still very short with the most recent reading showing 43 as a whole and 35 in area 82. Surprisingly close to the expected absorption rate addressed in the graph above.

There are more graphs and charts that I will examine, but I am going to save that for the next blog post, so as to keep you interested and coming back J. These other indicators include the list price to sales price ratios, median price over time, and median price per square foot. They also include my favorite, the contract-to-listing ratio which some of you are aware of from previous blog posts.

Hope you enjoy this information and find it useful. As always, if you have questions about the market from the perspective of the local appraisal expert, call or write. I am always happy to field whatever calls or emails that I can.

Data above is culled from the Ann Arbor Board of Realtors MLS

Rachel Massey, SRA, AI-RRS www.annarborappraisal.com