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Affordability in Chelsea Fairways

Affordability and rising prices

We have seen rapid price appreciation from recent market lows in 2007-10 in this particular submarket. Rising prices are great for sellers, but are they good for buyers? How do the increasing prices affect affordability?

Chelsea Fairways is a newer subdivision on the southeast side of Chelsea in Michigan. It has had a handful of developers active over the years, with the initial sales starting in 2002 and stalled around 2006 when the market slowed down locally. The final build out was completed in 2016 by a different builder, but throughout, the housing stock remained similar in quality and scope. Arraying the sales by price less concessions, it is easy to see how the bottom of this market was towards the 2008-10 period, with rapid increases from 2014 through 2017.

Other than completing the build-out of the development, not much has changed in the subdivision. The houses remain similar, the housing stock has aged somewhat, but the area is well maintained and continues to be a popular subdivision.

How do the increases in price affect affordability? We hear arguments about how the low interest rates made payments much lower, allowing buyers to stretch their housing dollars, but interest rates have been increasing slightly over the years based on the data found through Freddie Mac (see link below) which references historic interest rates by month.

One sale sold and resold a few times during this period, and is a good indicator about how payments would change over time with the hypothetical same buyer, with 20% down payment and prevailing interest rate for the time. In June 2012 the house sold for $226,200 and had taxes equivalent to $427 per month. Interest rates showed as 3.68% at that time. In May 2017 it sold for $335,000 and taxes of $493 per month. Interest rates showed at 4.01%. In July 2018 it sold for $359,000 and had taxes of $480 per month. Interest rates showed at 4.53%.

Based on the old rule of 28% housing-debt to income ratio, the following tables shows how the increasing interest rates and mortgage payment, increases the amount of income necessary to afford the same house. Although the 28% rule no longer applies, it is relevant in gauging changes in affordability. The same house purchased today would have an increase of almost $500 per month compared to six years ago. Does the typical buyer have the additional $500 per month to spend on mortgage payments, and would it affect the amount they could set aside for eventual needed repairs on the house? The increase in the properties sales price in six years was 58.71%. The rise in property payments over the same period was 54.25%. Have incomes increased over 50% in six years?

Of course, this example may be extreme, but since the sale was recent, and it sold several times over the past six years, it was germane. Interest rates rose, taxes declined slightly from the 2017 to 2018 period, making the payment a bit less than would otherwise be expected. In 2012, most of the houses sold were in the mid $200,000’s. There were a few REO sales that brought median and average lower, but the five non-distress sales had an average price of $236,274, therefore the sale used as a test was in the range of the others. In 2018 there were five sales with an average price of $372,300, also indicating an increase of over 57% in that same period.

Is this type of increase, coupled with the increasing interest rates and increasing taxes (for the most part) partly responsible for the current slowdown we are seeing? Is it just that we are entering a traditionally slower time of year? I do not have a crystal ball for the future, but throw out the question about affordability, since most people I know did not have a 50% increase in income over the past six years that would be what is needed to afford the same house.

Historic interest rates found through the following website:

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html

Observe, Analyze and Report – in that order

The more things change, the more they remain the same. We still need to pay attention to our analysis of both sales histories and listing histories for our subject properties and comparable sales.

scales

Observe, Analyze and Report- In that Order
By Maureen Sweeney, SRA, AI-RRS and Rachel Massey, SRA, AI-RRS

Appraisers have always faced objections and challenges to their reports as soon as they leave the office. Some are preventable, such as typographical errors or taking a photograph of the wrong comparable property- after all, we are only human. Others are out of the appraiser’s control, such as a foreclosure or a loan repurchase of a property we appraised.

When a loan is repurchased, the Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) or lender may turn to the original appraisal to evaluate its accuracy and verify that the observations made during the time of inspection were correctly documented. They may look to see if the contract, market conditions, prior sales history and other observations were analyzed, and that those observations, analyses and conclusions were communicated in a manner that was not misleading. Many of us are great at documenting what we see at a property as well as communicating these observations in our appraisal reports. Unfortunately, many appraisers are not as strong at analyzing data and are uncertain of what needs to be addressed, particularly as it relates to prior sales of the subject and the comparable properties included in the report.

To analyze something is to examine and interpret it. For the appraiser, it is the analysis of the data that we collect, examine and interpret. Appraisers need to report their analysis clearly and accurately to prevent future problems; “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Remember, most of our clients are not mind readers and may need to be walked through why there was a price increase or decrease to the subject or one of the comparable properties.

Most residential appraisers whose work is exclusively mortgage related, work mainly with the Fannie Mae Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR, Form 1004), Individual Condominium Appraisal Report (Form 1073), and/or the Small Residential Income Property Appraisal Report (Form 1025). While these three forms appear to be very different, they have many similarities. Each is tailored to a specific residential property type but each includes a Scope of Work, Statement of Assumptions, and Limiting Conditions. We are all so busy that it is easy to forget what is in the Certification that we sign with each report. As such, it is a good practice to read the pre-printed certification and limiting conditions pages occasionally. This is because each time we sign our report we are confirming that we have completed the items listed on those pages.

Analyze This
There are pressures that appraisers face daily, including time pressure, ever-growing engagement letters that require all kinds of additional details and information, and the constant battle for reasonable fees. Many of us have developed language and statements that help us save time in writing appraisal reports. One thing that boilerplate and drop-down menu statements cannot help us with is data analysis. This is one timesaving corner we cannot cut.

As much as we would like to think that presenting the facts about a sale is analyzing data, it is not. Analysis is more than a statement that a property sold on such and such a date, for such and such a price. The analysis includes how that sale was positioned in the market at the time of transfer or sale. Was the sale at arm’s length? Was it a REO sale in need of a total overhaul? Was the sale under duress because of some need to sell? Was it one family member selling to another? We need to address why it sold for what it did in relation to what the current appraised or final sales price is. We must analyze the prior sale as well as the current contract, if applicable, and explain and report the results of the analysis or explain why it was not performed.

As markets are rarely static, we need to analyze the current market and any changes to the market since the prior sale. This analysis of the market, and how it has fluctuated, is a basis for part of the analysis of the prior sale in comparison to the current market value. Because of the requirement by the GSEs to use the Market Research and Analysis Form (1004MC), sometimes there are inadequate data within the report to support a trend which might otherwise help paint a picture of an increase (or decline). When there is inadequate data to adequately complete this form, there is nothing stating we cannot include additional information outside of the MC form.

Often, those who look to find fault with an appraisal turn to this section first, because sometimes appraisers do not analyze the data presented in the 1004MC. Boxes may be checked, boilerplate statements may be added, but the data analysis is not summarized. The appraiser knows the market and knows what is occurring, but did not add a summation of the analysis or trends that may be reflected in the data. Are foreclosures and short sales an issue in the market? Appraisers may click the box “yes” yet not report the impact of those foreclosures and short sales in the subject’s market. When analyzing the market conditions, analysis is not a “should,” but a “must.” As appraisers, we are often so busy and it may seem so self-evident, but six months or a year down the line it may be very difficult to remember precisely what was happening in the market at the time. This extra bit of communication of what we observed in the market at the time can be very helpful, not only to our clients, but to ourselves in the event of a challenge to our work, months or even years down the line.

This analysis of the market conditions is used when analyzing the prior sales of the subject, as well as all comparable sales. Currently Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require a minimum 36-month sale and transfer history of the subject to effective date, and 12-months for all comparable sales since their most recent closed date. After September 14, 2015, the FHA requires 36-months for the subject and 36-months for all comparable sales. We are starting to see more ”flipping” again as the market has improved in many parts of the country. There are often examples of houses being purchased below market because they were in need of repair and then rehabbed or renovated, and resold.

Were any of the comparable sales sold previously below market value due to their condition and lack of modernization? Did these houses sell for a higher, similar or even lesser amount after improvement and is this consistent with the market conditions analysis? Sometimes this cannot be determined by looking back 12 or 36-months. Perhaps the comparable prior sale sold 40-months ago, but sold at a similar time as the subject’s prior sale. Would comparing that prior sale to its current sale further support the changing market conditions? Would it support the information presented in the Sales Comparison Approach to value? If the prior sale was a “trashed-out” REO sale and there are photos in the MLS, consider including a few of these photos, in addition to the narrative, as they can add needed support for the change. As appraisers, we may have to go beyond the minimum time and reporting requirements to accurately analyze the prior sales in order to develop credible assignment results.

Analyzing a Sale
How does one analyze a sale? The following is one simple example:
“Comparable sale 1 sold on 01/01/2015 after being exposed to the market for 7 days. It was bank owned, and in need of significant work, including replacement of all cabinetry, flooring, light fixtures and paint. It also needed a new roof and furnace. The water heater was in working order and the electric had previously been upgraded. The house was listed for sale for $99,000 and sold under a bidding war for $105,000. The purchaser of this property gutted what was remaining, replaced cabinetry, flooring, light fixtures and windows, as well as installed new siding, roof, and furnace. The entire interior was painted and the owner had the property staged for sale. It was offered for sale on 06/01/2015 for $225,000 and received three offers according to the listing agent. The house sold in 5 days on the market for $230,000 without concessions. The increase in price of $110,000 was partially related to the increasing market but in larger part due to the remodeling that took place in the interim.”

In this example, the appraiser analyzed the prior sale, then reported this information in the body of their appraisal report. This sale, which would have generated many questions, did not. The appraiser communicated their analysis in writing instead of only keeping notes in the work file. There was no need for questions by the appraisal reviewer, especially since MLS photos showing the prior and current condition were included in the report.

The Working RE story Supporting Market Conditions has one example of how to complete a market analysis outside of the 1004MC form. In short, if there are insufficient data points to provide any type of robust market analysis, include additional information supporting the position of how the market is changing or has changed, before the effective date of the report. Let the client know what has happened in the market since the prior sale of the subject as well as what has happened to the subject itself. Part of our jobs as appraisers is to help clients understand the market.

Should Do/Must Do
The appraiser’s job has changed dramatically in the past 10 years. We are under increased scrutiny by all parties in the mortgage industry as well as state regulators, attorneys and borrowers. Those of us still in the industry are paying for the sins of individuals who were part of various financial crimes, some even appraisers. Many of those who were guilty of these sins were not appraisers, yet many in the industry, the media, and the public insist on pointing the finger at us.

Some of the bad apples left the industry, by their own choice or through the encouragement of their state appraisal licensing boards. Because of this, what once was a “should,” has turned into a “must.” It is important to observe what is at the property and what is happening in the market, analyze that information, and provide at least a short summary of our analysis. Because of the massive amounts of information we are required to know and the constant changes that we see in the industry, sometimes we know much but don’t report enough. Sometimes we have to show our work. By showing our work and including our data analysis, objections and challenges of our reports will be a thing of the past. This is particularly the case related to prior sales of the subject property and the comparable sales included within the report.

Note, this originally appeared with WorkingRE 2.5 years ago, but the sentiment remains very much the same. This has been republished with their permission. Please visit the original at Here if interested.

What does the SRA mean to me?

black belt

What does being a designated member of the Appraisal Institute mean to me?
Does my designation matter to my clients?
Do I get more business because of having earned a designation?
Is it worth the time, effort and cost?

These are questions I often hear from people contemplating this path. For me, there is no one answer, because it means different things at different times and in different situations. What I can answer, with certainty, is that I would do it all over again. I never once regretted going through the designation process.

The process is designed to help one become a better appraiser. It is designed to provide a solid foundation, from which to grow, and designed to provide the tools to become a lifelong learner. Working through the process of becoming designated made me a better appraiser. That said, it is a continual process. It is a start, not an end. The goal is to continue to improve as opposed to reaching a point and stopping. I see earning the designation very much the same as earning a black belt in a martial art. There are many excellent martial artists who never test for a belt. Likewise, there are many excellent appraisers who have no desire to work on a designation. But, working towards a goal such as a designation or a blackbelt, provides a focus of intense learning and growth. Having a blackbelt does not mean that one is an expert, all it means is that a level of proficiency has been reached, and the martial artist is a serious beginner. Earning a designation means that a level of proficiency has been reached, and the designee is a serious beginner. For me, it provided the structure and a goal, as it does and did for countless others.

I was designated towards the end of 2003. Completing the demonstration appraisal report was a monumental task for me, and through it, I saw how the three approaches to value fit together in the real, and very imperfect world. It was amazing to see that the sales comparison, cost and income approaches tied together on my subject property. Even more amazing being that my subject was a fifty plus year old house in a 100% built-out development. The biggest sticking point was the cost approach. In fact, my first submission passed on all but the cost approach section. I ended up attending part of Course 500 again (the cost approach day) to make sure I approached it correctly. Second time I submitted was the charm.

The demonstration appraisal process provided me confidence in working through a problem, and communicating my results in a manner that was judged, and eventually accepted. This was, and still is, my seminal appraisal education experience. Even though in the end, it took me well over three years from start to finish, and countless hours, once I actually started writing, it taught me more than book-learning likely ever would. It gave me confidence in my ability to analyze and extract adjustments from imperfect real-world data. I had help from many mentors along the way, from the instructors in my narrative reporting writing course, to local appraisers who I leaned on for moral support and to steer me in the right direction if I thought I was going in the wrong one. Not only did the process help me become a better appraiser, but I forged relationships with more senior appraisers along the way, all of whom gave of their time willingly and freely.

After earning my designation, I thought that magically, business would fall in my lap from the heavens above. But we all know that this is not the case, and you must work for it. Never being very good at marketing, it did not magically fall in my lap, but I did have increased opportunities with some clients. The attorneys started using me greater regularity after I received my designation. My relocation work increased, as did my estate work. Lender work declined. It declined because I had been consciously ridding myself of that business to make way for more private, attorney and ERC work since the late 1990’s. Having earned my designation, I was able to increase this private business. Being in the Appraisal Institute directory exposed me to new potential clients better than any other marketing tool I had available.

By the middle of 2004 our market had started to shift. We were building inventory in housing, and although there were no price declines noted at that time, there was evidence that some change was coming. The contract-to-listing ratios were declining, and inventory was not absorbing at anywhere near a normal pace. Any lender work that I did take on, seemed to end up with angry borrowers and particularly angry loan officers. Other appraisers were also moving into the non-lending niche, probably noticing some of the same factors in lending. With more appraisers moving into private work, I started to lose enough of this work to worry me, designated or not. The final straw for me was a divorce appraisal that had been referred to me by both the husband’s attorney, the wife’s attorney, and the mediator facilitating the settlement. I lost the assignment to someone who charged only a fraction less. The designation helped me get the referrals, but my fees lost me the work.

Instead of fighting piecemeal for work, I decided to look for a job with a regular salary and benefits, and having my SRA opened the doors and got me hired with a large national lender. Although I left that job and moved onto another shortly after, I likely would not have been able to even have an interview if I did not have the designation behind my name. In the years that followed I have been in and out of the fee world, preferring review to field work, but always happy to take on relocation work. The designation has helped me have greater options on what I do.

So, does the SRA matter to my clients? To the clients that I care about and want to keep, it seems to matter very much. These include relocation companies, attorneys, and my current employer. Do I get more business because of having my SRA? When I have been in the field, in between my review jobs, yes. I picked up trust and estate work through the Appraisal Institute directory, and through networking and referrals from other appraisers. Does it help get me lender work? When working as a staff reviewer, I think I was hired in large part because of having the designation. For mortgage work related to private client groups, yes, I do believe that work comes through in part due to having a designation. For AMC driven mortgage work, no, I do not see it as a selling feature, but I have long tried to move away from that type of work on the origination side anyway.

Is it worth the time, effort and cost? My answer to that is an unequivocal yes! At least for me, yes, yes, yes! It is worth it because I understand very well that getting a designation does not mean you achieve it, and then leave it, never progressing past a certain point. It means giving back to the profession in whatever way I can. For me this is teaching, writing, participating in committees and work groups, and trying to help other appraisers. Other appraisers help/helped me, because they too see giving back as a critical need. This is part of being a lifelong learner, because through teaching, writing, participating, and assisting others, I continue to learn. I learn in the classroom, I learn outside of the classroom, and from other appraisers. I believe that going through the designation process set me up to expect that I would need to continue to be open to learning if I remain an active appraiser.

A well-developed martial arts program will instill that same idea to the practitioner. Reaching a blackbelt level does not mean that you have arrived and are an expert, but that you have reached a level of being a very serious beginner. To continue progressing in martial arts means constantly revisiting basics, and to progress as an appraiser, the same process of revisiting the fundamentals also exists. For martial artists, teaching is a great way of learning, as it exposes weaknesses that need to be corrected. This is no different from appraisers, who find that through teaching, their weaknesses are also exposed, and through that exposure, recognition on what needs to be corrected.

The process of becoming a designated appraiser was long and sometimes arduous. Being designated does not mean that I am an expert, but that I reached a level of proficiency and need to continue building from there. Success, in terms of work has followed directly based on the amount of effort that I put into learning and improving, and ebbs and flows, as does everything in life. While I would like to be able to answer with financial statistics related to how much value the designation has had for me, I cannot. I cannot because I cannot quantify it in that manner. From the perspective of professional satisfaction, it has been an immeasurable benefit. I would encourage anyone who wants to exceed their own expectations, to pursue the path, even if you no intention of ever being designated. After all, knowledge is power.

This was first published in Appraisal Today and has been re-shared in its original form, with permission by the publisher.

I have Google Earth and I know how to use it

Originally published in Appraisal Today, thank you Ann O’Rourke for allowing me to republish

I have Google Earth and I know how to use it

Seriously though, as a reviewer, it is one of the first tools I reach for when I look up the property that is the subject of the appraisal I am reviewing. Assume all reviewers do. We use it to make sure that the property does not back up to, side against, or face some type of externality such as a major 8-lane freeway, massive shopping mall or toxic waste facility. Hopefully the appraisal that has one of these externalities addresses it. Sometimes the appraisals go to great length to discuss externalities and any effect on marketability and value. Sometimes there is a sentence or two. Sometimes crickets.

Yesterday I pulled up GE on the house that was the subject of an appraisal I was reviewing and it backed up to a bunch of buildings. Looked possibly to be a school, but the street view maps took me around the side and to the entrance of what turned out to be a large condominium complex. Absolutely no big deal, but there wasn’t one single word related to this in the appraisal. I asked a group of appraisers whether they would make a comment if their subject property backed up to a condominium complex, and the responses ran the gamut from “of course”, to “no way, it is already covered in the neighborhood check boxes”.

While the check boxes for the neighborhood include multi-family, they do not include condominium, and in this instance, there was nothing in the appraisal even hinting that there was a mixture of single-unit uses in the area. This property didn’t raise a red-flag insomuch as backing to a freeway, commercial shopping center or toxic waste facility, but it did raise a question and warranted a bit more research. This is fine as it part of my job, but as someone who actually reads the reports in front of me, I was just left confused as to why it wasn’t even mentioned. I was even more confused by why so many appraisers say that it is not worth mentioning.

Maybe it is being old fashioned, but I grew up with the understanding that an appraiser was the eyes and the ears of the client, and that anything that would likely raise a question for the client should be addressed. Of course the freeway, mall and toxic waste facility are givens, but wouldn’t anything that was literally in the backyard also be something that would get questioned? How many minutes does it take out of the process to write a few sentences about a condominium complex? Couldn’t it be as simple as saying “The subject backs up to the XYZ condominium complex and has a seasonal view of some of these buildings. There is no negative effect on marketability or value of the subject property related to its location adjacent to this residential use” or some such rot?

While it is easy to overlook potential concerns due to the amount of reporting we have to do (and remember, there is no such thing as a perfect appraisal), stepping into the mind of the client and asking yourself “what would the client be concerned about” is a very useful exercise. While the client may not care about the house backing to a condominium complex because it is a residential use like the subject, they may care about it backing to the complex if for some reason it does affect marketability and/or value. It is up to us, as appraisers, to report and analyze what it is we see, and although we can never catch every little thing, our value is partly measured by our ability to communicate and to analyze these nuances.

Remember, reviewers have Google Earth and other tools at their fingertips, and most use them.