michigan Archives - annarborappraisal

Saline MI – Wildwood

Every town seems to have a neighborhood which has broad appeal. In Saline, Wildwood is one such neighborhood. Here occupants find wooded lots, walkout basements and proximity to many area amenities. What I thought my readers would find interesting is how this specific market has changed over time, measured over the past 12 plus years as well as what I see happening now. The sales information is gleaned from the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors MLS and does not include For Sale by Owner properties.

This first image is a scatter graph of the adjusted sales price of each sale from 2006 to 2/28/19. Prices are clearly trending upward.
The next graph shows the adjusted price per square foot in the same period. Price per square foot is meaningful, in that in a data set that contains different size properties, it can normalize some of the increase that might show if the recent sales are larger properties.

This graph also clearly shows an upward trend in price in Wildwood.
Another way we could look at this is with a chart laid out in how many sales per year occurred, what the average and median sales prices were, the average and median sizes, and average and median price per square foot. This type of information could be useful in showing where the majority of change occurred. So far 2019 has only two closed sales, but these were on average, smaller houses.

The graph that follows uses the average and median sales prices compared to each other from the data above. The blue bar is the median, which is my preference in measuring a market. This layout is helpful in seeing there was a slight dip in the market between 2008 and 2011, with the greatest increase in 2016.

Continuing in the same vein, price per square also shows an increase, but with 2018 running slightly below 2017 in general. If an appraiser indicated the market was slowing, based on this data, they would be correct, to an extent. The past three years showed similar gross living area both in the average and median sizes, with 2017 having slightly smaller sales than 2016 and 2018, meaning the expectation is that the price per square foot range would be higher. That is precisely what shows below, while the graph above shows an increase.

What is the saying? There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

As of 3/1/19, the MLS showed no active available listings in Wildwood. There were three properties under contract. The lack of available properties in a subdivision that has steady turnover, indicates higher demand than supply, which in turn tends to drive prices upward.

All of this information is to help the consumer understand the various elements of the market an appraiser may study to measure what is happening with the market at any given time. Since appraisals are snapshots in time, understanding the market is a major component of the analysis.

You can access my website for information about appraisals, and what services I can provide. Please think of me for your private appraisal needs. https://annarborappraisals.com

Vernon Downs

Situated north of Scio Church Road and south of Avondale, on Ann Arbors West Side, Vernon Downs is a long popular development built in several phases between 1955 and 1965 by George Airey. The houses are well-built, and a mixture of ranch, split-level, capes and colonials. The majority of houses are ranch style, between 1,200 and 1,400 sqft in size. The oldest parts of the subdivision along Winsted, Sanford, Weldon and Waverly are primarily smaller ranches with varying degrees of off-street parking including carports, detached, attached, and no garages. The later part of the development along the west side, towards Maple Road (Waltham, Agincourt, Covington, and others) have more mixture and larger houses, with attached garages standard. The primary school is located on the northwestern side of the subdivision, and the area high school is less than one mile east across Seventh.

The Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors no longer retains hardcopy MLS books, but does retain fairly robust data back to 2005, and in some instances earlier. Doing a search for the word “Vernon” in the legal description of all sales found online, and then restricting these to ranch style only, it is easy to track movement in price over time, including the Great Recession that hit Ann Arbor as well as the nation in general. The first graph shows price reductions for individual sales over time. This was included as price reductions are a leading indicator of a changing market. Using this information, it was clear that price reductions had started in 2005-06, and that they had increased in number between 2007 and 2010, then a second spike in 2012.

The next data run was related to net sales price over time, showing increases at a significant level over the past few years, and the largest dip in prices here between 2009 and 2010.

Because there were varying size houses in the mix, and because the neighborhood is spread out in phases with the newer larger houses tending to sell at higher prices, price per square foot was also run. This data also shows a dip in prices in 2009 and 2010.

Because there were so many sales using this method (204 in total), it was also broken out year by year, and finally comparing current activity in the neighborhood using the same criteria of “Vernon” and ranch style houses. This is displayed in average price over time, as median and averages were largely similar.

In observing this data, what is particularly noted is that right now, there is only one active and one property under contract, but both are lower priced than the past two years sales. Of course, the contracted property is smaller than the averages and likely in the older section, but it is worth noting.

Using the data above on a yearly run, It is easy to see how the list price to sales price ratio widened over time to a low point in 2005 (too few sales) and 2010, and rose over 100% in 2016 and 2017. So far, 2018 is lower, just over 97%. Part is likely due to the increasing prices however. Again, this could be a bellwether indicator of a market in transition.

Average sales price over time shows a decline from 2004 to 2005, but again there were too few sales in the MLS at that time to be meaningful, and an increase slightly in 2006 and 2007, followed by a decline to a low point in 2009. Because markets are very location specific, this is very interesting to observe, as the condominium study that was completed last week showed a decline in prices starting in 2005. Those condominium properties are on the southwest side of Ann Arbor, only a couple miles from Vernon Downs. It actually makes a lot of sense to see rates of decline and increase at different times, because so much of what we see related to price fluctuation can be related to supply and demand. In areas with ample supply, the market may change at a greater rate, and at an earlier time. The average sales price per square foot ratio is much the same as the average price ratio, so is not posted in addition, but there is a leveling of price per square foot noted between 2017 and 2018.

For the real estate professionals reading this blog, how does the current market “feel” to you? Does it feel like a normal winter slowdown, particularly with some early cold snaps we have had, or are the interest rates and price increases over the past couple of years perhaps taking a toll? Probably none of us can pin this down at the moment, but it is worth watching what is going on with the market, particularly the properties that are on the market and not going to contract, the price reductions, and the list prices of the contracted listings.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, and be safe out there!

Rent versus buy?

Real estate social media shows a constant narrative about the benefits of owning a property versus renting. This brief synopsis addresses how this is not always true.

In real estate, it is location, location, location. What is true in one area may not be true in another, and renting is not always more expensive than owning. So many articles that compare ownership versus renting costs do not account for the necessary set-asides that have to be factored into homeownership. They do not address the flexibility of renting; meaning that if someone is still in an upward career trajectory, they may not want to be tied down to a property. They do not factor in what could happen if markets change and prices move downward. Of course, values could continue to rise and rents could continue to increase, so each person considering owning versus renting needs to consider their own unique needs, as do the professionals assisting them.

To make a comparison, look at the most recent rentals within a series of condominium complexes, and compare them with the most recent sales. The data is segmented into three different unit sizes and uses the rental cost versus the cost of ownership with a 20% down payment and 4.5% interest rate. Many buyers are not going to have the 20% down payment, so the cost would be higher, as the loan payment would increase not only by the amount of the mortgage, but with the added cost of private mortgage insurance (PMI).

The above table shows rents between $1,400 and $1,700 per month. The yellow highlighted properties are the ones that are compared to cost of ownership, as there were sales of the same models available in the same period.

The next chart shows the sales, with the stated homeowners association fees and monthly tax burden, plus what a 30-year, 4.5% interest rate mortgage at 80% loan to value would equate to. The “total” column is the mortgage plus taxes and HOA. Insurance is not factored in as it is variable. These stated taxes were largely incorrect however, as they were the seller’s taxes, not the taxes that the buyer would be paying once the property reset to the State Equalized Value as opposed to the lower Taxable Values.

Factoring in the reset to taxable values for the properties that were highlighted above shows a different scenario. In this scenario, the actual tax burden was added, plus a 10% set aside for repairs and upgrades, and a “true total” comparison made. Because the 1,126 sqft unit was renting for $1,500 per month, the difference is only $1 per month in savings. The 1,376 sqft units showed a better buffer of between $76 and $140 per month, but the larger 1,382 sqft unit would have been more expensive to purchase than rent.

It bears repeating that the data above factors 20% down payment, and not everyone who is looking at renting versus buying, has these resources. Not every situation is the same, and it is very important to look at each case individually to make comparisons between renting versus owning. Although national data can be enticing to make a case that one is better than another, it is not the case in every situation.

Consult your local professionals for advice related to what works best for your situation.

September Washtenaw County Snapshot

Snapshot of the market for 9/1/18

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How are we faring in Washtenaw County as far as market absorption?

A quick run of the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors MLS data for single family properties (includes duplicate listings due to multiple board insertions) shows mixed trends. To read the chart below, the data is arrayed by area, the number of prior closed sales in the last year, supply based on these sales (only includes available properties), total number of listings, those that are reporting as available, those under contract, and the contract to listing ratio.

9.1.18 snapshot

I have found the contract-to-listing ratio (CTLR) the most meaningful in measuring how a market is faring, and consider anything under 20% to be a buyers’ market, between 21-34% balanced, and over 35% as a sellers’ market. Based on this information three markets are showing as sellers’ markets, those being Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor and Chelsea are tilting towards a sellers’ market, and Manchester, Dexter and Saline are showing balance.

Based on the total number of sales in the past year, compared to what is currently available, Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti again are all showing less than two months of inventory, which helps support the thesis of a sellers’ market in these areas. Ann Arbor has less than three months inventory, while Chelsea, Manchester and Dexter are showing around 3.5 months in general. Saline shows close to five months’ worth of inventory, but my suspicion is that much of this relates to a larger number of “to be built” offerings in Saline as there are a number of new subdivisions under construction that are inputting offerings into the MLS. This may be the case as well in Ann Arbor and Chelsea, where new subdivisions are underway.

As we head into the fall, and new school year, the markets tend to slow down, and there is evidence based on this larger data, that this is the case with some areas. Of course, this information is “macro” data in that it includes each entire school district as opposed to the sub-markets within each one. I plan on running this type of information monthly for this blog, so we can compare how markets track over time. Please feel free to share the information gathered, and if you want to subscribe to my email distribution list, let me know, or sign up to follow my blog at https://annarborappraisal.blog//. I am always available to chat or assist with your appraisal needs.

Changing markets

By Rachel Massey, SRA, AI-RRS

It is easy to miss the market. Sometimes subtle changes are occurring and it is too early to pick up on a trend. Or there is conflicting information indicating both an increasing and a declining market at the same time, depending on the market segment.

If appraisers had crystal balls into the future, we would be doing something other than appraising. The money would be in predictions, not in measuring the current market. We are expected to be in touch with the market however, but basing our opinions on past, closed transactions is not necessarily the current market. This is one reason analyzing current offerings, pending sales, expired and withdrawn listings, and listening to the chatter of those involved in real estate sales is important.

Between 2007 and 2010 much of the nation experienced significant declines in real property values. Some appraisals that were developed and communicated in that period indicated the market was stable, even with evidence to the contrary. Appraisers were reluctant to mark the declining trends box on the form reports, due to very real concerns of losing lender business by doing so. The 1004MC form, that became mandatory after April 1, 2009, came to being in large part as a way to help ensure that appraisers analyzed the market. Like it or not, this provided structure and direction to lead the appraiser to look at what was happening in the market, at the time of the appraisal. Although many appraisers state this form is woefully inadequate, few supplement it with additional information supporting their market trends decision. This is the thesis of this short article; to be aware of other elements to observe in addition to the MC document, as well as what to watch for as the market starts to change. Because change is inevitable.

Ten years after the market decline, large parts of the country are experiencing significant increases in real property values. Some markets have surpassed the previous highs, and many appraisers are concerned about a repeat cycle reminiscent of the 2007-2010 market. How do we as appraisers, protect ourselves against being accused of incorrectly measuring what market conditions are? How can we analyze what factors are driving the market, and what should we be aware of as possible bellwether indicators of a changing market?

Although not exhaustive, below is a list of some of what is driving an increasing market in many of our individual areas.

Low inventory
Low rates
Few builder specs
Builder entry prices (due to labor shortages and increasing costs)
Owners converting housing to rentals
Taxes making moves difficult (resetting to higher assessments)
Need to sell to buy and lack of opportunity to do so – making downsizing difficult
Owners holding on to their residence due to no desire to change circumstances
Fear of rising rates causing panic buying
Optimism that prices will continue to increase

Being aware of what is driving the market is a good first step to being aware of what could ultimately change the market. Each of the points above can cumulatively or individually result in a change to market conditions. In addition, the following factors should be watched.

Incomes not keeping pace with price increases
Increased inventory
Rising rates
First time buyers priced out of market deciding to opt out
Property taxes exceeding allowable write-off

Ways to check what is happening

Contract to listing ratios
Expired and withdrawn listings
Days on market
Price reductions or increases
Listing prices lower than comparable sale prices
Widening gap between list and sales prices
Comments in listings “bring offers” “priced below recent appraisal”
Agent interviews – agent chatter
Falling rental prices
Incomes not keeping pace with price increases
Increasing relocation assignments

Contract-to-listing ratios are a concept that agents use, but most appraisers do not seem attuned to. It is simply taking a pool of competitive properties into consideration, and looking at the percentage of the listings on the market at that time that are under contract. If the determination is that the competitive market for the subject property is a 1,000 – 1,500 sqft ranch house built between 1940 and 1960 in such and such an area, the appraiser may find there are 100 listings on the market, but of those 100 listings, 40 are under contract. That is a 40% contract to listing ratio, and indicates the market is strong and houses are absorbing into the market. If on the other hand, there are 100 listings but only ten are under contract, that is a 10% contract to listing ratio and is weak, showing the market is not strong. This can be used to measure whether the market is favoring buyers, sellers, or is generally balanced. Through keeping track of this type of information in various market segments over time, it can be used to predict near-term changes in the market. For example, price pressure may show all the listings 20% higher than the sales, but if very few are under contract, it is unlikely there is going to be a jump in prices, but if most are under contract in spite of the spike in prices, it is likely they will close higher and it affords a chance to be left behind. Take for example, this sample that I ran (by price, not by market segment for the simplicity of this article) for my market on 2/16/18 and run again on 3/18/18 for comparison, to see what areas in the market were experiencing the greatest pressures:

Overall the market shows extremely tight, with less than 2.75 months’ worth of inventory as a whole in the entire school district, and by price, in the same realm through to the $500,000 price range. Over that, there is more inventory and a much lower contract to listing ratio, at 24.53% compared to 32% for just a bit lower priced, between $401,000 and $500,000, and even greater at 57.14% in the $301,000 – $400,000 range. How does this type of information help inform the reader of the current market? It simply shows what inventory is like as well as how active the market is. It doesn’t show price increases if they are occurring, but it is pretty unlikely that a market with 50% of the houses on the market under contract is going to be either stable or declining. If your opinion of value on the property was $190,000, there would be no active competition as of this date and it would be a good bet that the house would be in high demand. Conversely, if your opinion of value was $650,000, there would be much more competition and the expectation would be a longer marketing period. In addition to how the subject of the appraisal might be positioned, keeping track of ratios over time can be useful in noticing a trend before it becomes well known in the market, realizing that figures could vary in a day. In the example above however, the trends appeared similar, showing the highest levels of activity in this market in the $201,000 – $400,000 range, with no inventory under $200,000.

When markets are tight and increasing, it is just as important to discuss the market and any changes that are evident, as it is when the market is declining. Ignoring an increasing market is just as incorrect as ignoring a declining market. Stating that one only adjusts downward for declining markets, but not upward for increasing markets is an incorrect procedure. Document the changes and include what you can in the report.

Document, document, document, as silly as it may seem, using Trulia, Realtor.com and other online tools can help you with keeping a record of trending information on top of what you present in your report. Realtors Property Resource has a tool which provides trending analysis for the property under consideration, the zip code and the county. Realist also provides for price trends, as do Trulia, Realtor.com, Movoto and other sources. Although these data sources provide broader market data, simply having the information you pulled related to trends in the market, in your workfile, is helpful in the event someone comes back years later saying you should have marked declining on the report when all indications were that the market was stable to increasing at the time you completed the assignment.

Markets can change overnight. For those of us appraising in 2001, we can remember how the world stood still on 9/11, and how it took a month or two for the country to breathe again and get back to doing business. Significant market changes can happen quickly, and we have to be able to be aware of what is going on in our market, even with these events. Agents who are active in the market will be in a perfect position to talk with us about what they are seeing as well. It is a good idea to build trusting relationships with agents, who will share their concerns as well, even if it is “off record”. These relationships do matter.

If the market in your area begins to decline, do not be afraid to report what you see – even if the short-term repercussion is decreased work from such and such lender. The long-term benefit of being truthful is more important. Appraisers must work with integrity and not be afraid of losing business for doing the right thing.

This post has been copied in its entirety (well, without ads) from the original source of publication, WorkingRE, with their permission. Original link below. Please visit their site often as well 🙂

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Appraising Lakes, Beyond Front Footage

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When attempting to determine the value of lakefront property, there’s so much more to the equation than just measuring waterfront space. Here’s what appraisers and agents need to know.

As summer approaches, activity on lakes—large and small—increases. But in my experience as a REALTOR® and certified appraiser, it is apparent that many agents, brokers, and appraisers have not acquired all the knowledge, skills, and perspective needed to accurately evaluate lakefront property. In the hope of filling in some of the gaps, here are some tips on how appraisers can provide a more defensible appraisal on these complex properties as well as some of the nuances that agents who are new to lake properties should consider.

The Why of the Buy

Both appraisers and agents alike need to be aware of the motivations that result in sales. Appraisers need to be in touch with the vagaries of the different submarkets in order to adequately analyze the properties they appraise, and agents need to understand that there is much more to selling lake property than front footage.

What motivates a buyer to purchase a lake property? Is it the tranquility? The beauty of the water? The excitement of a speedboat and waterskiing, or casting a line into the water in hopes of landing a trophy catch? It is all of these things, and none of these things. The motivations are almost as numerous as the buyers looking for a lake house are, and one buyer’s paradise is another’s hell. Different types of lakes attract different buyers, and the buyer looking for tranquility is going to be very unhappy purchasing a house on a lake crowded with jet skis and powerboats. The same would be true for the avid motorist who buys on a small, quiet fishing lake.

Quality Over Quantity

While some depend on how many “front feet” the property has on the water to determine value, that is not necessarily the best course. The amount of frontage usually relates to space between neighbors and how much area is available for docking and beach toys. But consider the house sitting on the edge of a bluff, with 200 feet of frontage and 100 steep steps down to the water. What if the shoreline is also rocky and reedy? Five lots south, the topography has sloped in to a gentle, almost level lot and the frontage itself is a natural sandy beach. This lot has only 50 feet at the lakefront. Which is more valuable?

The value of a lake property could be tied not only to the ease of the access and the quality of the frontage but also to the lake itself. For a clean swimming lake, the narrower 50-foot lot might be much more valuable than the less accessible 200-foot lot. But for a lake that is picturesque but not good for swimming or boating, the 200-foot lot with the elevated views might be the more valuable site. It all depends on the lake and why buyers might be interested in that particular spot.

Present and Future Demand

I live and work in Michigan, a state surrounded by lakes of all kinds. The Great Lakes are a treasure, but not exactly the bastions of privacy and quiet you see on some of the smaller inland lakes. Many of our inland lakes are massive in size, deep, and clean. Some are shallow, reedy, and mucky, making them more of a viewing amenity than anything else. Some lakes allow all the toys and others only a kayak or canoe. Some are merely ponds in buyers’ eyes.

There are many questions that buyers, real estate agents, and appraisers should consider in addition to the present appeal of the lake itself, because these issues contribute to whether the lake remains appealing into the future. Some lakes are manmade in that they are the result of damming a river. Some municipalities are considering removing such dams—in that case, what happens to the manmade lake? Some lakes have been invaded by unwelcome species such as zebra mussels, Eurasian watermilfoil, and other nuisances. Lakes with public access sites tend to have more trouble with these invasive species, though they do also travel naturally through waterfowl and other means. Could a lake with an invasive species problem become less desirable than one without? Is there any guarantee that a pristine lake will remain so? What about the life cycle of a lake? Is it a dying lake, or is it likely to stay in similar condition for the foreseeable future? How is the management on the lake? Is there an active association that seeks to ensure the health of the lake? Are septic systems monitored? Does the association have prohibitions against fertilizers?

But just as bodies of water can change, so too can our perspectives on them. Is it possible that we are starting to see a shift, as our population ages, to the desire for quiet lakes that do not allow gas motors? It used to be that these quiet “no-wake” lakes had less appeal, but in many instances, they are now attracting buyers that would not have considered them 10 or 20 years ago. There is something to be said for the quiet of a lake without loud motors and loud reveling at all hours of the day and night. On the other hand, these lakes have limitations of use, and buyers who want to have it all might find the sportier lakes desirable, in particular if there are limited year-round residents. The lack of year-round residents could mean that the owner has quieter weekdays, with increased activity on the weekends and over holidays.

The Tools at Your Disposal

The Department of Natural Resources maintains lake maps in most areas. These maps show the topography and composition of the lake bottom. DNR maps will also show public access points, existing housing, and other features. Appraisers and agents alike should become familiar with these maps. Plat maps are also available in many areas, and these can be used to examine other features, such as ownership issues where a third party may control the frontage in between a property and the lake shore. Another concern that can impact value is keyholing or funneling, where backlot owners have rights to a parcel on the water. Just being aware of some of these issues can help you be a better advocate for your client and know when to direct them toward legal counsel to help determine whether they have water rights.

Not All Sales Are Comparable

If possible, it’s best to find comparables on the same lake, but remember, lakes also have varied topography, both on shore and to the lake bottoms, and just because the potential comparable property is on the same lake might not mean that the properties are actually comparable.

Appraisers need to understand the lake itself and which lakes are reasonable alternates if nothing is available on the lake upon which we are doing our appraisal. Know your market and write about what is important to the target audience. How large is the lake? How deep is it? What types of activities are allowed on the lake? What are the other lakes that the buyer for our property would reasonably consider and why? Fully describe the topography, frontage, and access to the water at the subject site. Write about whether the beach is sandy, mucky, rocky, reedy, and so forth. Document sunrise and sunset views, parking, and docking. Agents don’t have the same communication requirements as appraisers do here, but they should be aware of what appraisers are considering and what they are reporting, because such factors affect the pricing conversation as well.

Determining logical comparable search criteria is incredibly important in lakefront homes because buyers may consider properties on lakes that are 20 or 30 miles apart, something that might scare some of the most experienced underwriters if not properly explained. A smart appraiser will set the stage ahead of time through the narrative in the report, which will help the underwriter and reviewers understand the thought process for the choice of comparables. Once the appraisers have spelled out the reasons that have drawn a buyer to the subject lake, discussion follows about the lakes that are competitive and why they are competitive. This can justify the use of sometimes very distant comparables.

Agents can help by providing appraisers with information about the lakes that the buyer considered and why they considered them as competitive. If your buyer would only consider one lake, explain why. While it might not be possible for the appraiser to stay on that lake due to lack of recent sales data, the buyer’s motivations to that lake over others can still be helpful.

Summer is coming and lake buyers will be out in force again soon. Be prepared to have a lake appraisal take longer and be costlier than a regular subdivision job. Take the extra time necessary for these lake deals to research the lake and the site, in addition to the improvements on the site. Hopefully the extra effort will pay off and you’ll be better able to enjoy your next lakeside sunset or cool dip in the water.

beyond front footage