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Bromley Park updated

Bromley Park is a subdivision developed and built by Pulte Homes from 2002 through 2004, south of Geddes, north of Clark and east of Harris in Superior Township in the Willow Run Public school district. It encompasses the streets East and West Avondale Circle, Ravenshire, High Meadow, Wexford and Glenhill Drives. The subdivision has open green spaces to the west and to the north up to Geddes Road, and along the south and east there are many wooded views. Along the interior streets there are some areas with woods and walking paths. The development has a shared pool with the condominium development to the west. There are 266 homesites within this detached single-family development.

Further information about Bromley Park can be located by accessing the development website at
http://www.bromleypark.org/

In 2015, dues were $425 for the year.

On 1/13/14 I ran statistics related to changes in the market from 2011 through 2013 in Bromley itself, showing a decline in short sales and foreclosure properties and an increase in arm’s length sales, as well as an increase in sales overall. Sales prices also showed as on the increase, rising from a median price of $135,500 to $169,500 over that three-year period. That information is found on an earlier blog post found here.

So how is this development faring in todays’ market? Recent sales are higher than the previous peak around 2005 (or statistics do not go back adequately that far and I ran 12-years’ worth of sales). The low part of the market in this development is between late 2009 and late 2012, and prices reached previous peaks around 2015-16, rising since then as shown by this chart.

Over the past two years, the increase has been strong as well, rising from an average sales price of $229,315 to an average of $254,167 from one year to the next (10.84% increase). The median price has increased from $225,000 to $250,000 (11.11%) with the same information, with similar average and median gross living area.

Currently there are three houses offered for sale in the development with a median asking price of $279,900 and an additional one house under contract, which has an asking price of $244,900. The gross living area for the house under contract is 1,795 sqft, which is in line with the median and average sizes of the sales in the 2-year study. The median size of the active properties is higher, at 2,156 sqft, which may account for the higher asking prices. With only one out of four houses under contract, the market shows 25% absorption, which is not robust and could indicate a shift, in particular as the one listing under contract points to a lower price than average and medians.

As there were 12 sales in the past 12-months, the current inventory indicates a 3-month supply. These factors point to a stable market, to possible pressure downward due to the one pending sale. This means, that although the trend lines show increasing, the market could be changing. Looking deeper into the sales that sold last year and the current contracted property, shows similar style houses in the same price range overall, indicating stable. An appraiser would not be faulted for calling the market either stable or increasing based on all of this information.

For any questions related to this, or other information on this website, please contact me at rachmass@comcast.net

Who are you going to call?

…Ghost busters!

Social media can be rife with misinformation, such as when the information presented is well intentioned, but of a national scope. National studies are not local studies, and blanket statements presented as fact are potentially misleading. Real estate agents are professionals who are involved in selling houses on a daily basis and know their markets — as well as what drives interest with the buyers and sellers they are working with. Their job is difficult; often rewarding, and they make lasting relationships with the people they have worked with. Most agents are “people persons” who thrive on human interactions, and on being able to make a difference in the lives they touch. Agents do know what their buyers are willing to pay for certain features in certain markets and price ranges, but often do not approach the valuation process in the manner that appraisers do.

Take this ad for example. The agent had a great talking point related to how various remodeling projects can add to the appeal of a property and perhaps the eventual sales price, but the talking points were incorrectly presented. There are a few issues with this ad, one is that there are very specific percentages expressed, and another that there is no source citation for these percentages. The main issue however is, if a real estate agent is the right individual to state what adds value on a home appraisal?

While advertising is critical in today’s market, advertising specific percentages or numbers about specific remodeling projects gleaned from national sources, can be misleading. Stating that these features add value to an appraisal, and that the reader should ask a real estate agent about what adds value to an appraisal, is illogical. Instead, simply go to a source, such as your local appraiser and get an appraisal completed.

For the percentages above, we have no idea where this hypothetical property is located; what price range or market segment it is in, or what the source for information is. In addition, the numbers are so precise that they are not logical. If one were to replace a garage door for $3,000, would it truly add a return of 98.3% or $2,949? Would that manufactured stone you put on the house, that some buyers will like and others hate, truly add 97.1% return? Do buyers even look at a property and say that they will pay $50.47 more per square foot than another house that was 95-sqft smaller? These types of advertisements are catchy, but they could also be misleading. In addition, the ad clearly points the reader to contact a real estate agent to tell you how much value a renovation adds to a home appraisal. This too is illogical, since an agent is not an appraiser and the job functions are not the same.

A professional appraiser, who knows the local market, has the ability to both provide a current value, and a value “subject to” the proposed changes. Appraisers approach each problem to be solved in a competent, independent, impartial and objective manner. There is significant training and experience required to become a certified appraiser. Real estate agents have a lot of specific training and education as well, but their roles are different and agents work on helping buyers and sellers achieve their goals of purchasing/selling real property. They are often functioning in multiple roles, such as acting as mediator, stager, chauffeur, diplomat and therapist. While they deal with sales prices, and know what buyers are willing to pay for properties, their view on the properties is much more “larger picture” than an appraiser specific, researched and analyzed determination.

When considering buying or selling a property, the agent is the first to call. When considering a remodel or addition and the effect on the value on the property, the appraiser is the first to call.

Contemplating a Remodel?

You love your location, but you are growing to hate your home. It is simply too small, awkward and out of date, so you consider moving.

After looking at what is available, and the hassle of picking up to ready your house for sale, let alone finding a suitable house in the price range you are comfortable with, you start entertaining the idea of having your home remodeled and expanded. Who wouldn’t? Of course, before undertaking a large project, getting an idea of where you currently stand in terms of your properties value, and where you will stand after the project is completed, is a good idea. The following is a brief discussion of what to consider.

Renovating and/or expanding your existing residence can be a great idea. You already own the property so do not need to worry about competing with others for another one; you know your neighbors and get along; your taxes won’t go sky-high by moving and uncapping the current rate; you don’t have to get a new mortgage other than perhaps an equity or renovation loan, so you can keep the lower underlying rate. Other than the mess and disruption of living through a construction project, are there other downsides?

The downsides on taking on a large construction project (or even a smaller scale one) are that it is very easy to spend more than you will recoup in the market. In fact, it is good to go into the project with the expectation that you will NOT recoup your costs, but that you are contemplating the project to take a home that you are beginning to hate and turn it into one that you absolutely love.

Do not go into a project expecting it to give you a high return on investment. Logically it makes sense to take a look at the value of your property before the renovations and what it would be worth at the same time with the proposed renovations. This is where a professional appraiser can be your best option in terms of possibly scaling back the plans, or going forward understanding where you stand.

A professional appraiser who knows your market has the ability to both provide a current value, and a value “subject to” the proposed changes. Appraisers approach each problem to be solved in a competent, independent, impartial and objective manner. The appraisal process itself is designed to conclude to an opinion that is logical, and factors in identifying what the problem is the client (you) are trying to solve. There is significant training and experience required to become a certified appraiser. In fact, experience and qualifications for anyone who you hire should be considered as critical, including the architects, designers, and building contractors. Professionals will be eager to provide their qualifications and experience upon request. If you are contemplating any remodeling, approach hiring the professionals with as much care as you would the actual remodel.

Pre-listing appraisals

There is a lot of negative commentary in social media and in the press related to what appraisals are and what appraisers do. Much of it seems to stem from a misunderstanding of the appraisal process. I just saw a YouTube video an agent put together disparaging appraisals from the pre-listing perspective, and instead advocating for the use of agent’s market analysis. Both appraisal and CMAs are valid, as they have different functions, and it makes no sense to disparage one to try and sell the other.

In order to help dispel some myths that cause this type of misunderstanding, consider what an appraisal is, and what a CMA is, and how both are useful in the prelisting process.

From the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) definitions section:

APPRAISAL: (noun) the act or process of developing an opinion of value; an opinion of value. (adjective) of or pertaining to appraising and related functions such as appraisal practice or appraisal services.

Comment: An appraisal must be numerically expressed as a specific amount, as a range of numbers, or as a relationship (e.g., not more than, not less than) to a previous value opinion or numerical benchmark (e.g., assessed value, collateral value).

REPORT: any communication, written or oral, of an appraisal or appraisal review that is transmitted to the client or a party authorized by the client upon completion of an assignment.

APPRAISER: one who is expected to perform valuation services competently and in a manner that is independent, impartial, and objective.

Comment: Such expectation occurs when individuals, either by choice or by requirement placed upon them or upon the service they provide by law, regulation, or agreement with the client or intended users, represent that they comply.

Looking at these definitions, an appraisal relates to the development of the opinion of value, while the report is the communication of that opinion. Most of what the public sees is the report, not the act of development.

The definition of appraiser is particularly important as this is one who is expected to perform competently, independently, impartially and objectively. Why would there be any objection at all to someone who is performing this work in such a manner as the definition of an appraiser implies? The appraisal report should, by its very definition, end up being an unbiased opinion. I will add that the opinion is based on factual data that is observed, analyzed, and reported in a competent manner. Because of that, it is very important that data that is provided to the MLS and public records be reported accurately, as both agents and appraisers will need to rely on what is reported to a large extent.

A competitive market analysis (CMA) is the REALTORs study of the market and the subject properties position in the market. Most agents use similar data sources that the appraisers use, but tend to focus more on the active properties as compared to the sold properties in establishing an asking price. This makes sense because the buyer is not going to have the opportunity to buy one of the comparable sales that are used in an appraisal report, since they already sold. They could buy one of the active alternatives. In that manner, this is a logical approach. One concern with it however, is that the appraisal will need to at least meet the sales price once the property goes to contract, therefore studying the past sales is paramount as well.

Ideally both appraisals and CMAs consider both the past and the present, as well as the current market tone and activity. Appraisers look to most probable sales price, while agents will try and focus on the highest possible price for their client. Often sellers will have two or more CMAs for their property completed as part of the various listing presentations, as agents vie for a listing. Sometimes the agent’s CMAs are not close together at all, and the owner needs an independent opinion, which is where many appraisals for pre-listing information come into play. Sometimes sellers are simply more comfortable hiring an appraiser to provide them an opinion outside of the listing process, to ensure they do not significantly overprice their property. This too makes sense. Spending a little bit of money prior to listing, could save substantial time and heartache if the property does not sell and is marketed an extended time. Or it could do the same if it does sell, but cannot be supported by closed sales in the market. Many sellers look at the appraisal report as an ounce of protection being worth more than a pound of cure.

Both appraisals and CMAs have a place in the process of listing a property for sale. Homeowners should carefully review an appraiser’s experience, qualifications and knowledge of the market, as well as that of any agent they hire. After all, both appraisers and agents will work a market extensively, whereas a seller (or buyer) will only occasionally participate in the real estate market.

National data, does not local data make

Marketing is a great idea. Agents and appraisers alike need to be in the public eye as individuals on a regular basis, otherwise we are easily forgotten. Cautious marketing however; could be a better idea. We really do not want to impart information that could lead our audience astray, even if it does spark conversation and gets our name out to those whom we wish to reach.

This morning I read a post on social media, citing a 2017 Zillow study about the effects of paint color on property sales prices. The post provided exact prices where a color increased the “value” of a property based on this study. However, and this is a very big however, the source does not cite how exactly this study was conducted; whether it encompasses houses in the entire country; every price range conceivable; any variables related to overall condition of each property, or how these numbers were extracted with confidence from the market. While we want to provide meaningful content, we have to be careful about painting a picture of what something may, or may not be. A study that encompasses an entire nation would unlikely accurately encompass a smaller market segment in a smaller local community. Even though most people reading the post would understand that the data provided was national in scope, some might not. Perhaps a link to the article would be a wise approach, in particular if the information is offering advice on increases in sales price based on some improvement or another.

For instance, if we have two identical houses with identical remodeling in the $200,000 price range in Chelsea, will the house with a blue front door truly sell for $1,514 more than the house with the brown front door? What happens if this house is in the $1,000,000 price range in Ann Arbor? Will it truly sell for that same $1,514 premium? What about a 1900’s Farm House with a blue dining room, compared to a 1950’s contemporary; will they see the same effect? See the problem?

caution

Searching for the source of this information, I believe it is the Zillow article linked below. The methodology is discussed in that article, but it does not account for location, price ranges, sizes, or condition and quality of the properties, and focuses on colors only. Although it states that the properties had similarity, this is based on photographs, not detail, and photographs do not always portray properties accurately. My question is whether you can pair identical or virtually identical properties with the one variable being a colored wall or door, and extract this type of precise sales price difference? Do homeowners typically paint walls white as addressed below, or when painting interior walls, is the trend towards some type of color? If homeowners/investors are not using white as the current trend, are we even comparing new paint to new paint? In my opinion, so much of the differences come down to the overall condition and levels of upgrades of the properties involved, not as much the paint colors. So much of what we see is local, not national, which is important to remember.

Is using this type of marketing tool wise given the precise numbers expressed, or is it better to simply say that currently, the color blue is popular for front doors, bathrooms and dining rooms, and point to the recent study? Is it also possible that in our local community, the color choices may not be popular?

“Methodology

The Zillow Paint Colors Analysis measured how different paint colors in various room types may affect the sale price of a home compared to its Zestimate. We analyzed more than 135,000 photos from listings around that country that sold between January 2010 and May 2018 to identify which paint colors were associated with a home selling for more or less than its Zestimate when compared to similar homes with white walls. The analysis controlled for other wall colors within each room type, square footage, home age, and ZIP code Zillow Home Value Index in the listing month. Price effects for different room-color combinations are estimates of the average premium or discount but may not reflect a causal difference in value compared to white walls.”

Found https://www.zillow.com/research/paint-colors-help-sell-20240/

Appraisers try to measure market reaction to various elements of comparison, but a paint color choice would rarely result in any effect on the opinion of value, unless the paint color was so bold that it was a detractor from the value of the property. Even so, this type of subtle and easily cured element, would be exceedingly difficult to measure with any type of precision. It would be very dependent on the market segment and market activity. Most appraisers would factor in the cost to cure plus a small entrepreneurial profit for the buyer’s time and efforts involved in the cure. Or they would consider it under the overall condition of the property. It also depends on inventory and how the rest of the home shows, as there may be no penalty or benefit from it. If it was just one room, and the market was undersupplied, it might have no effect on the marketability of the house, but if there was ample supply and houses were taking 6-months to sell, and the house needed paint throughout, then there would be a different situation. It is unlikely an appraiser is going to measure to this granular a level, just as it is unlikely that a buyer is going to pay a precise $1,514 extra for that blue front door. At least in our local market.

If you need an opinion of value for your property in Washtenaw County, please contact me through email at rachmass@comcast.net.

Changes over time

One of the reasons an appraisal value is a point date, is that markets are fluid. What happens today, may not happen in the future, and likely did not happen in the past.

The image below is a chart of four different price segments, as well as the overall market for Saline Michigan. It is run by price ranges (not the way we appraisers do our analysis, but relevant in measuring where the activity lies). This data is over a six-month period, with three data runs in March, June and September. What shows is an increasing inventory overall, and currently lower concentration of listings that are under contract. The June market data showed the highest absorption of the listings into the market, but we expect that since the summer months are most active. The lowest absorption is shown at present, which is also expected as the market softens most often after the height of the summer.

Saline has consistently had a lack of inventory for less than $200,000, but as of 9.21.18, there were three offerings of single-family properties (not including condominiums) for less than that. The number of active listings has increased across the board, but the most active markets continue to be between $201,000 – $400,000 based on this information. It does show a sharp drop off over $300,000 in the most recent data run. Meanwhile supply builds in the $401,000-$500,000 range. This is likely due to numerous “to be built” properties being input into the MLS in this price range. Throughout this data set, the market over $500,000 has shown balance to an oversupply based on the number of available properties for sale.

The reason for a point date, is that markets change. The evidence is easily seen here, with the supply and demand factors changing between each data run. The current information shows the market is slowing in terms of absorption, and the amount of inventory overall. The caveat of course, is that each of these price segments is different, and some are staying level as far as inventory and absorption (mainly the $201,000-$300,000 range), while others are changing rapidly. If an appraiser were to value a house at $350,000 in March, there would be very little competition based on this information. If it were in June, the competition would also be limited, but if it came on the market today, there would potentially be 20 other properties competing. This does change the dynamics of the appraisal analysis, even if it only relates to how long it is expected to remain on the market.

When markets are sizzling hot, there are few listings operating as competition for a property. When markets cool, listings become ever more important as part of the analysis. Understanding what is happening as far as supply and demand in the market is critical, and should be part of any appraisal. Knowing where the subject property stands in terms of the competition is part of the analysis.

Please feel free to contract me for any of your appraisal needs in local market. My website address is https://annarborappraisals.com and you can contact me here by email.

Sharing important article – why appraisers matter

John Brenan wrote this excellent piece related to why appraisers matter. This article is found on the National Association of Realtors online magazine (and hopefully in print as well). The link can be found here. I highly recommend all my readers click on the link and read the article.

Ann Arbor market snapshot by price

stats

Although appraisers do not run search parameters for their comparable sales by price range, occasionally running market information by price can help isolate where the shortages and excesses are. Take for example, this information from 9/18/18, run between 8 – 8:30 PM through the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors.

This is a very quick snapshot of how many sales occurred in each price bracket shown within the Ann Arbor school district compared to what was available for sale, and those that were already reported under contract (P&C). The CTLR column refers to the contract-to-listing ratio, simply put the number of properties under contract compared to the total number listed for sale at any given time. The last column relates to how many months supply there is based on the last 12-months sales in that price bracket.

Not unsurprisingly, the lowest priced houses showed the greatest absorption into the market and the lowest supply. Up to $500,000 the market showed good absorption with over 37% of the houses on the market under contract and less than a three month supply, and over $500,000 the absorption rate drops (other than the anomaly of the $801,000-$900,000 range) and months of inventory increases.

9.18.18 price snapshot

This is good information to consider, as the narrative in the news may be that we are experiencing a severe housing shortage, but if it is broken down into a price range, what shows is a housing shortage under a certain price point, and excess inventory over that price point.

For the potential trainee

trainee

Just saw a poorly worded post on social media, with the poster asking a group of appraisers for help finding someone to mentor their trainee. It turns out the poster was actually asking for suggestions on how to find a mentor, and that she was the trainee. This is a common question, and many of us who have been appraising for a long-time, field these types of questions on a regular basis. The question is essentially what can I do to become licensed or certified.

We need fresh blood coming into the industry, but the appraisal field does not have a limitless supply of work, and taking on a trainee is a time-consuming and costly venture for the supervisor. The commitment of the potential mentor is much more onerous than that of the trainee. Not only is the time commitment enormous, if done correctly, but the potential of training someone who lacks loyalty and harms your business is real. As such, the potential trainee needs to approach the supervisor with something of value that would help create a mutually beneficial relationship, not one that is one-sided. The trainee needs to be committed to being loyal to the person who takes the time to properly mentor them, and not to start with the idea of “hanging their own shingle” as soon as certified.

Appraisers throughout the blogosphere are talking about a lack of work. While it is common that the autumn months are slower than the early spring through summer months, this could be different. There is not a plethora of work for residential and commercial appraisers alike, and when appraisers see fewer orders, they are less likely to consider taking on additional help, including trainees. The cyclical nature of appraising makes it more likely, in my opinion at least, that a potential trainee will more successfully navigate finding a supervisor in the spring, than in the fall or winter. If the slow-down in work continues, then it may be difficult regardless of the season. In that case, the potential trainee is going to need to bring something valuable to the table.

Becoming an appraiser takes commitment and gumption. Just to become a trainee, the trainee has to have 75-hours of pre-licensing qualifying education including the 15-hour National USPAP course. That is without the guarantee of a supervisor. The trainee will have to be directly monitored by a Supervisory Appraiser who is in good standing with their state. The supervisor has to maintain an experience log with the trainee, and will need to directly supervise until they deem the trainee is sufficiently competent to complete certain aspects of the appraisal process without direct oversight. The supervisor remains responsible for the work of the trainee throughout this training period, which typically lasts at least two years.

More information about the trainee and supervisor requirements can be found on the Appraisal Foundation website at Appraisal Foundation. If you are exploring the idea of becoming an appraiser, please study these requirements, as well as listen to the Real Value Podcast from Blaine Feyen about trainee appraisers. This is found at Real Value Podcast.

Both trainee and supervisor have uncertainty related to the future. The supervisor can rightly worry about training someone who will leave as soon as they become valuable, and the trainee has a legitimate concern about being taken advantage of, and working with someone who lacks either ethics or competency, or even both.

more trainee

Appraising can be a fascinating and rewarding career, and I do encourage people to explore it. If you have a passion for research, communication, and are able to put in a sufficient amount of time to properly develop your skills, then it can be a fabulous career. Great appraisers never stop learning and never stop expanding on their skillsets, be it with the valuation analysis, type of property appraisal report, or writing skills, or in other aspects. If this excites you, and you want to put forth your best work at all times, please do the research and talk with appraisers. Network, and take high quality coursework. Although not limitless, there is always room for ethical and competent appraisers in the field. It is not necessarily easy, but those of us who love it, remain passionate about it throughout the years.

September Washtenaw County Snapshot

Snapshot of the market for 9/1/18

pexels-photo-164359

How are we faring in Washtenaw County as far as market absorption?

A quick run of the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors MLS data for single family properties (includes duplicate listings due to multiple board insertions) shows mixed trends. To read the chart below, the data is arrayed by area, the number of prior closed sales in the last year, supply based on these sales (only includes available properties), total number of listings, those that are reporting as available, those under contract, and the contract to listing ratio.

9.1.18 snapshot

I have found the contract-to-listing ratio (CTLR) the most meaningful in measuring how a market is faring, and consider anything under 20% to be a buyers’ market, between 21-34% balanced, and over 35% as a sellers’ market. Based on this information three markets are showing as sellers’ markets, those being Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor and Chelsea are tilting towards a sellers’ market, and Manchester, Dexter and Saline are showing balance.

Based on the total number of sales in the past year, compared to what is currently available, Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti again are all showing less than two months of inventory, which helps support the thesis of a sellers’ market in these areas. Ann Arbor has less than three months inventory, while Chelsea, Manchester and Dexter are showing around 3.5 months in general. Saline shows close to five months’ worth of inventory, but my suspicion is that much of this relates to a larger number of “to be built” offerings in Saline as there are a number of new subdivisions under construction that are inputting offerings into the MLS. This may be the case as well in Ann Arbor and Chelsea, where new subdivisions are underway.

As we head into the fall, and new school year, the markets tend to slow down, and there is evidence based on this larger data, that this is the case with some areas. Of course, this information is “macro” data in that it includes each entire school district as opposed to the sub-markets within each one. I plan on running this type of information monthly for this blog, so we can compare how markets track over time. Please feel free to share the information gathered, and if you want to subscribe to my email distribution list, let me know, or sign up to follow my blog at https://annarborappraisal.blog//. I am always available to chat or assist with your appraisal needs.