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Dissolution appraisal reports

Appraisals for marital dissolution

There are many reasons to obtain a professional valuation on your property. One of the most difficult and sensitive reasons is for marital dissolution. Since the marital home is normally one of the most valuable jointly held assets, taking on an appraiser to do the work should never be done lightly.

As in all appraisal reports that are completed, utmost care should be taken in considering factors that influence the value of the property. Knowledge of the local market, including understanding supply and demand, absorption into the market, and pulse within the subject’s submarket is very important. Equally important is an understanding of buyer preferences in the submarket which the property operates within. For example, if the market expects two full bathrooms but the property has only one, how does that affect the value as well as the marketability of the property? If buyers expect a three-car garage in newer homes, but the subject has only two, does it change the buyer pool altogether? Is the market slowing; is it increasing; are buyers out in droves looking at properties or are they pulling back and waiting? These are some of the types of questions appraisers examine as they study the market related to the appraisal report.

The written communication, the appraisal report.

When we think of the word “Appraisal”, we often think of the communication of the appraisal. The appraisal is actually the act or process of developing that opinion of value. What you, the consumer, will see, is the “Report”. The report is the communication of the appraisal (or appraisal review), which is transmitted at the completion of the assignment. As a party who is not typically reading appraisal reports on a daily basis, the communication should be addressed in a manner that is clear, understandable and not misleading. This means that jargon should be minimized, or if used, explained. It means that there may be no need to provide a mile-high analysis of the nation’s economy, but stick with specifics that relate to the property itself. Of course, it is important to discuss what is happening with the market, but for a single-unit residence, what is happening in California will not be relevant to what is happening in Ann Arbor, in most cases.

The report should contain enough information that, you the client, can understand completely how the appraiser arrived at their opinion of value, whether or not you agree with that conclusion. Sometimes clients will not agree with the conclusion, but it is critical that they understand the logic and reasoning behind it.

There are many steps that are taken to arrive at an opinion of value, and to communicate that opinion in a manner that is clear and understandable. Choosing an appraiser to handle this very important piece of the dissolution problem should be done with care. Your attorney should have suggestions for whom to use. If you are not working with an attorney, consult those who do see appraisal reports with regularity such as REALTORS, loan personnel, and other appraisers. In fact, one of the best ways to hire a competent professional to handle this sensitive need, is to ask other appraisers whom they would recommend. Time and again, a couple names will surface. Interview those appraisers and go with whom you feel most comfortable. Other avenues of finding competent appraisers is to search appraiser databases from different appraisal organizations. The Appraisal Institute has the Find an Appraiser search function found here The Relocation Appraisers and Consultants has a directory search found here , and the American Society of Appraisers has a search section here.

Fees and turn times.

Every appraiser sets their own fee schedule and turn time for completing assignments. Considering the time that is involved in properly identifying the problem to be solved (which includes the different factors that influence value), determining what is necessary to solve the problem, implementing those processes, and then communicating the findings, do not expect the appraisal report to be an inexpensive part of the dissolution process. Given the hourly rate of most attorneys, expect to pay somewhere between two and five hours of your attorney’s fee for the appraisal report itself, and an hourly rate for any testimony that is needed in the event of a court or deposition appearance. If the marital home is the greatest asset that is jointly owned, this is a small price to pay for peace of mind of a job well done.

Bromley Park updated

Bromley Park is a subdivision developed and built by Pulte Homes from 2002 through 2004, south of Geddes, north of Clark and east of Harris in Superior Township in the Willow Run Public school district. It encompasses the streets East and West Avondale Circle, Ravenshire, High Meadow, Wexford and Glenhill Drives. The subdivision has open green spaces to the west and to the north up to Geddes Road, and along the south and east there are many wooded views. Along the interior streets there are some areas with woods and walking paths. The development has a shared pool with the condominium development to the west. There are 266 homesites within this detached single-family development.

Further information about Bromley Park can be located by accessing the development website at
http://www.bromleypark.org/

In 2015, dues were $425 for the year.

On 1/13/14 I ran statistics related to changes in the market from 2011 through 2013 in Bromley itself, showing a decline in short sales and foreclosure properties and an increase in arm’s length sales, as well as an increase in sales overall. Sales prices also showed as on the increase, rising from a median price of $135,500 to $169,500 over that three-year period. That information is found on an earlier blog post found here.

So how is this development faring in todays’ market? Recent sales are higher than the previous peak around 2005 (or statistics do not go back adequately that far and I ran 12-years’ worth of sales). The low part of the market in this development is between late 2009 and late 2012, and prices reached previous peaks around 2015-16, rising since then as shown by this chart.

Over the past two years, the increase has been strong as well, rising from an average sales price of $229,315 to an average of $254,167 from one year to the next (10.84% increase). The median price has increased from $225,000 to $250,000 (11.11%) with the same information, with similar average and median gross living area.

Currently there are three houses offered for sale in the development with a median asking price of $279,900 and an additional one house under contract, which has an asking price of $244,900. The gross living area for the house under contract is 1,795 sqft, which is in line with the median and average sizes of the sales in the 2-year study. The median size of the active properties is higher, at 2,156 sqft, which may account for the higher asking prices. With only one out of four houses under contract, the market shows 25% absorption, which is not robust and could indicate a shift, in particular as the one listing under contract points to a lower price than average and medians.

As there were 12 sales in the past 12-months, the current inventory indicates a 3-month supply. These factors point to a stable market, to possible pressure downward due to the one pending sale. This means, that although the trend lines show increasing, the market could be changing. Looking deeper into the sales that sold last year and the current contracted property, shows similar style houses in the same price range overall, indicating stable. An appraiser would not be faulted for calling the market either stable or increasing based on all of this information.

For any questions related to this, or other information on this website, please contact me at rachmass@comcast.net

Who are you going to call?

…Ghost busters!

Social media can be rife with misinformation, such as when the information presented is well intentioned, but of a national scope. National studies are not local studies, and blanket statements presented as fact are potentially misleading. Real estate agents are professionals who are involved in selling houses on a daily basis and know their markets — as well as what drives interest with the buyers and sellers they are working with. Their job is difficult; often rewarding, and they make lasting relationships with the people they have worked with. Most agents are “people persons” who thrive on human interactions, and on being able to make a difference in the lives they touch. Agents do know what their buyers are willing to pay for certain features in certain markets and price ranges, but often do not approach the valuation process in the manner that appraisers do.

Take this ad for example. The agent had a great talking point related to how various remodeling projects can add to the appeal of a property and perhaps the eventual sales price, but the talking points were incorrectly presented. There are a few issues with this ad, one is that there are very specific percentages expressed, and another that there is no source citation for these percentages. The main issue however is, if a real estate agent is the right individual to state what adds value on a home appraisal?

While advertising is critical in today’s market, advertising specific percentages or numbers about specific remodeling projects gleaned from national sources, can be misleading. Stating that these features add value to an appraisal, and that the reader should ask a real estate agent about what adds value to an appraisal, is illogical. Instead, simply go to a source, such as your local appraiser and get an appraisal completed.

For the percentages above, we have no idea where this hypothetical property is located; what price range or market segment it is in, or what the source for information is. In addition, the numbers are so precise that they are not logical. If one were to replace a garage door for $3,000, would it truly add a return of 98.3% or $2,949? Would that manufactured stone you put on the house, that some buyers will like and others hate, truly add 97.1% return? Do buyers even look at a property and say that they will pay $50.47 more per square foot than another house that was 95-sqft smaller? These types of advertisements are catchy, but they could also be misleading. In addition, the ad clearly points the reader to contact a real estate agent to tell you how much value a renovation adds to a home appraisal. This too is illogical, since an agent is not an appraiser and the job functions are not the same.

A professional appraiser, who knows the local market, has the ability to both provide a current value, and a value “subject to” the proposed changes. Appraisers approach each problem to be solved in a competent, independent, impartial and objective manner. There is significant training and experience required to become a certified appraiser. Real estate agents have a lot of specific training and education as well, but their roles are different and agents work on helping buyers and sellers achieve their goals of purchasing/selling real property. They are often functioning in multiple roles, such as acting as mediator, stager, chauffeur, diplomat and therapist. While they deal with sales prices, and know what buyers are willing to pay for properties, their view on the properties is much more “larger picture” than an appraiser specific, researched and analyzed determination.

When considering buying or selling a property, the agent is the first to call. When considering a remodel or addition and the effect on the value on the property, the appraiser is the first to call.

Pre-listing appraisals

There is a lot of negative commentary in social media and in the press related to what appraisals are and what appraisers do. Much of it seems to stem from a misunderstanding of the appraisal process. I just saw a YouTube video an agent put together disparaging appraisals from the pre-listing perspective, and instead advocating for the use of agent’s market analysis. Both appraisal and CMAs are valid, as they have different functions, and it makes no sense to disparage one to try and sell the other.

In order to help dispel some myths that cause this type of misunderstanding, consider what an appraisal is, and what a CMA is, and how both are useful in the prelisting process.

From the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) definitions section:

APPRAISAL: (noun) the act or process of developing an opinion of value; an opinion of value. (adjective) of or pertaining to appraising and related functions such as appraisal practice or appraisal services.

Comment: An appraisal must be numerically expressed as a specific amount, as a range of numbers, or as a relationship (e.g., not more than, not less than) to a previous value opinion or numerical benchmark (e.g., assessed value, collateral value).

REPORT: any communication, written or oral, of an appraisal or appraisal review that is transmitted to the client or a party authorized by the client upon completion of an assignment.

APPRAISER: one who is expected to perform valuation services competently and in a manner that is independent, impartial, and objective.

Comment: Such expectation occurs when individuals, either by choice or by requirement placed upon them or upon the service they provide by law, regulation, or agreement with the client or intended users, represent that they comply.

Looking at these definitions, an appraisal relates to the development of the opinion of value, while the report is the communication of that opinion. Most of what the public sees is the report, not the act of development.

The definition of appraiser is particularly important as this is one who is expected to perform competently, independently, impartially and objectively. Why would there be any objection at all to someone who is performing this work in such a manner as the definition of an appraiser implies? The appraisal report should, by its very definition, end up being an unbiased opinion. I will add that the opinion is based on factual data that is observed, analyzed, and reported in a competent manner. Because of that, it is very important that data that is provided to the MLS and public records be reported accurately, as both agents and appraisers will need to rely on what is reported to a large extent.

A competitive market analysis (CMA) is the REALTORs study of the market and the subject properties position in the market. Most agents use similar data sources that the appraisers use, but tend to focus more on the active properties as compared to the sold properties in establishing an asking price. This makes sense because the buyer is not going to have the opportunity to buy one of the comparable sales that are used in an appraisal report, since they already sold. They could buy one of the active alternatives. In that manner, this is a logical approach. One concern with it however, is that the appraisal will need to at least meet the sales price once the property goes to contract, therefore studying the past sales is paramount as well.

Ideally both appraisals and CMAs consider both the past and the present, as well as the current market tone and activity. Appraisers look to most probable sales price, while agents will try and focus on the highest possible price for their client. Often sellers will have two or more CMAs for their property completed as part of the various listing presentations, as agents vie for a listing. Sometimes the agent’s CMAs are not close together at all, and the owner needs an independent opinion, which is where many appraisals for pre-listing information come into play. Sometimes sellers are simply more comfortable hiring an appraiser to provide them an opinion outside of the listing process, to ensure they do not significantly overprice their property. This too makes sense. Spending a little bit of money prior to listing, could save substantial time and heartache if the property does not sell and is marketed an extended time. Or it could do the same if it does sell, but cannot be supported by closed sales in the market. Many sellers look at the appraisal report as an ounce of protection being worth more than a pound of cure.

Both appraisals and CMAs have a place in the process of listing a property for sale. Homeowners should carefully review an appraiser’s experience, qualifications and knowledge of the market, as well as that of any agent they hire. After all, both appraisers and agents will work a market extensively, whereas a seller (or buyer) will only occasionally participate in the real estate market.

National data, does not local data make

Marketing is a great idea. Agents and appraisers alike need to be in the public eye as individuals on a regular basis, otherwise we are easily forgotten. Cautious marketing however; could be a better idea. We really do not want to impart information that could lead our audience astray, even if it does spark conversation and gets our name out to those whom we wish to reach.

This morning I read a post on social media, citing a 2017 Zillow study about the effects of paint color on property sales prices. The post provided exact prices where a color increased the “value” of a property based on this study. However, and this is a very big however, the source does not cite how exactly this study was conducted; whether it encompasses houses in the entire country; every price range conceivable; any variables related to overall condition of each property, or how these numbers were extracted with confidence from the market. While we want to provide meaningful content, we have to be careful about painting a picture of what something may, or may not be. A study that encompasses an entire nation would unlikely accurately encompass a smaller market segment in a smaller local community. Even though most people reading the post would understand that the data provided was national in scope, some might not. Perhaps a link to the article would be a wise approach, in particular if the information is offering advice on increases in sales price based on some improvement or another.

For instance, if we have two identical houses with identical remodeling in the $200,000 price range in Chelsea, will the house with a blue front door truly sell for $1,514 more than the house with the brown front door? What happens if this house is in the $1,000,000 price range in Ann Arbor? Will it truly sell for that same $1,514 premium? What about a 1900’s Farm House with a blue dining room, compared to a 1950’s contemporary; will they see the same effect? See the problem?

caution

Searching for the source of this information, I believe it is the Zillow article linked below. The methodology is discussed in that article, but it does not account for location, price ranges, sizes, or condition and quality of the properties, and focuses on colors only. Although it states that the properties had similarity, this is based on photographs, not detail, and photographs do not always portray properties accurately. My question is whether you can pair identical or virtually identical properties with the one variable being a colored wall or door, and extract this type of precise sales price difference? Do homeowners typically paint walls white as addressed below, or when painting interior walls, is the trend towards some type of color? If homeowners/investors are not using white as the current trend, are we even comparing new paint to new paint? In my opinion, so much of the differences come down to the overall condition and levels of upgrades of the properties involved, not as much the paint colors. So much of what we see is local, not national, which is important to remember.

Is using this type of marketing tool wise given the precise numbers expressed, or is it better to simply say that currently, the color blue is popular for front doors, bathrooms and dining rooms, and point to the recent study? Is it also possible that in our local community, the color choices may not be popular?

“Methodology

The Zillow Paint Colors Analysis measured how different paint colors in various room types may affect the sale price of a home compared to its Zestimate. We analyzed more than 135,000 photos from listings around that country that sold between January 2010 and May 2018 to identify which paint colors were associated with a home selling for more or less than its Zestimate when compared to similar homes with white walls. The analysis controlled for other wall colors within each room type, square footage, home age, and ZIP code Zillow Home Value Index in the listing month. Price effects for different room-color combinations are estimates of the average premium or discount but may not reflect a causal difference in value compared to white walls.”

Found https://www.zillow.com/research/paint-colors-help-sell-20240/

Appraisers try to measure market reaction to various elements of comparison, but a paint color choice would rarely result in any effect on the opinion of value, unless the paint color was so bold that it was a detractor from the value of the property. Even so, this type of subtle and easily cured element, would be exceedingly difficult to measure with any type of precision. It would be very dependent on the market segment and market activity. Most appraisers would factor in the cost to cure plus a small entrepreneurial profit for the buyer’s time and efforts involved in the cure. Or they would consider it under the overall condition of the property. It also depends on inventory and how the rest of the home shows, as there may be no penalty or benefit from it. If it was just one room, and the market was undersupplied, it might have no effect on the marketability of the house, but if there was ample supply and houses were taking 6-months to sell, and the house needed paint throughout, then there would be a different situation. It is unlikely an appraiser is going to measure to this granular a level, just as it is unlikely that a buyer is going to pay a precise $1,514 extra for that blue front door. At least in our local market.

If you need an opinion of value for your property in Washtenaw County, please contact me through email at rachmass@comcast.net.

Changes over time

One of the reasons an appraisal value is a point date, is that markets are fluid. What happens today, may not happen in the future, and likely did not happen in the past.

The image below is a chart of four different price segments, as well as the overall market for Saline Michigan. It is run by price ranges (not the way we appraisers do our analysis, but relevant in measuring where the activity lies). This data is over a six-month period, with three data runs in March, June and September. What shows is an increasing inventory overall, and currently lower concentration of listings that are under contract. The June market data showed the highest absorption of the listings into the market, but we expect that since the summer months are most active. The lowest absorption is shown at present, which is also expected as the market softens most often after the height of the summer.

Saline has consistently had a lack of inventory for less than $200,000, but as of 9.21.18, there were three offerings of single-family properties (not including condominiums) for less than that. The number of active listings has increased across the board, but the most active markets continue to be between $201,000 – $400,000 based on this information. It does show a sharp drop off over $300,000 in the most recent data run. Meanwhile supply builds in the $401,000-$500,000 range. This is likely due to numerous “to be built” properties being input into the MLS in this price range. Throughout this data set, the market over $500,000 has shown balance to an oversupply based on the number of available properties for sale.

The reason for a point date, is that markets change. The evidence is easily seen here, with the supply and demand factors changing between each data run. The current information shows the market is slowing in terms of absorption, and the amount of inventory overall. The caveat of course, is that each of these price segments is different, and some are staying level as far as inventory and absorption (mainly the $201,000-$300,000 range), while others are changing rapidly. If an appraiser were to value a house at $350,000 in March, there would be very little competition based on this information. If it were in June, the competition would also be limited, but if it came on the market today, there would potentially be 20 other properties competing. This does change the dynamics of the appraisal analysis, even if it only relates to how long it is expected to remain on the market.

When markets are sizzling hot, there are few listings operating as competition for a property. When markets cool, listings become ever more important as part of the analysis. Understanding what is happening as far as supply and demand in the market is critical, and should be part of any appraisal. Knowing where the subject property stands in terms of the competition is part of the analysis.

Please feel free to contract me for any of your appraisal needs in local market. My website address is https://annarborappraisals.com and you can contact me here by email.

September Washtenaw County Snapshot

Snapshot of the market for 9/1/18

pexels-photo-164359

How are we faring in Washtenaw County as far as market absorption?

A quick run of the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors MLS data for single family properties (includes duplicate listings due to multiple board insertions) shows mixed trends. To read the chart below, the data is arrayed by area, the number of prior closed sales in the last year, supply based on these sales (only includes available properties), total number of listings, those that are reporting as available, those under contract, and the contract to listing ratio.

9.1.18 snapshot

I have found the contract-to-listing ratio (CTLR) the most meaningful in measuring how a market is faring, and consider anything under 20% to be a buyers’ market, between 21-34% balanced, and over 35% as a sellers’ market. Based on this information three markets are showing as sellers’ markets, those being Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor and Chelsea are tilting towards a sellers’ market, and Manchester, Dexter and Saline are showing balance.

Based on the total number of sales in the past year, compared to what is currently available, Lincoln, Milan and Ypsilanti again are all showing less than two months of inventory, which helps support the thesis of a sellers’ market in these areas. Ann Arbor has less than three months inventory, while Chelsea, Manchester and Dexter are showing around 3.5 months in general. Saline shows close to five months’ worth of inventory, but my suspicion is that much of this relates to a larger number of “to be built” offerings in Saline as there are a number of new subdivisions under construction that are inputting offerings into the MLS. This may be the case as well in Ann Arbor and Chelsea, where new subdivisions are underway.

As we head into the fall, and new school year, the markets tend to slow down, and there is evidence based on this larger data, that this is the case with some areas. Of course, this information is “macro” data in that it includes each entire school district as opposed to the sub-markets within each one. I plan on running this type of information monthly for this blog, so we can compare how markets track over time. Please feel free to share the information gathered, and if you want to subscribe to my email distribution list, let me know, or sign up to follow my blog at https://annarborappraisal.blog//. I am always available to chat or assist with your appraisal needs.

Observe, Analyze and Report – in that order

The more things change, the more they remain the same. We still need to pay attention to our analysis of both sales histories and listing histories for our subject properties and comparable sales.

scales

Observe, Analyze and Report- In that Order
By Maureen Sweeney, SRA, AI-RRS and Rachel Massey, SRA, AI-RRS

Appraisers have always faced objections and challenges to their reports as soon as they leave the office. Some are preventable, such as typographical errors or taking a photograph of the wrong comparable property- after all, we are only human. Others are out of the appraiser’s control, such as a foreclosure or a loan repurchase of a property we appraised.

When a loan is repurchased, the Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) or lender may turn to the original appraisal to evaluate its accuracy and verify that the observations made during the time of inspection were correctly documented. They may look to see if the contract, market conditions, prior sales history and other observations were analyzed, and that those observations, analyses and conclusions were communicated in a manner that was not misleading. Many of us are great at documenting what we see at a property as well as communicating these observations in our appraisal reports. Unfortunately, many appraisers are not as strong at analyzing data and are uncertain of what needs to be addressed, particularly as it relates to prior sales of the subject and the comparable properties included in the report.

To analyze something is to examine and interpret it. For the appraiser, it is the analysis of the data that we collect, examine and interpret. Appraisers need to report their analysis clearly and accurately to prevent future problems; “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Remember, most of our clients are not mind readers and may need to be walked through why there was a price increase or decrease to the subject or one of the comparable properties.

Most residential appraisers whose work is exclusively mortgage related, work mainly with the Fannie Mae Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR, Form 1004), Individual Condominium Appraisal Report (Form 1073), and/or the Small Residential Income Property Appraisal Report (Form 1025). While these three forms appear to be very different, they have many similarities. Each is tailored to a specific residential property type but each includes a Scope of Work, Statement of Assumptions, and Limiting Conditions. We are all so busy that it is easy to forget what is in the Certification that we sign with each report. As such, it is a good practice to read the pre-printed certification and limiting conditions pages occasionally. This is because each time we sign our report we are confirming that we have completed the items listed on those pages.

Analyze This
There are pressures that appraisers face daily, including time pressure, ever-growing engagement letters that require all kinds of additional details and information, and the constant battle for reasonable fees. Many of us have developed language and statements that help us save time in writing appraisal reports. One thing that boilerplate and drop-down menu statements cannot help us with is data analysis. This is one timesaving corner we cannot cut.

As much as we would like to think that presenting the facts about a sale is analyzing data, it is not. Analysis is more than a statement that a property sold on such and such a date, for such and such a price. The analysis includes how that sale was positioned in the market at the time of transfer or sale. Was the sale at arm’s length? Was it a REO sale in need of a total overhaul? Was the sale under duress because of some need to sell? Was it one family member selling to another? We need to address why it sold for what it did in relation to what the current appraised or final sales price is. We must analyze the prior sale as well as the current contract, if applicable, and explain and report the results of the analysis or explain why it was not performed.

As markets are rarely static, we need to analyze the current market and any changes to the market since the prior sale. This analysis of the market, and how it has fluctuated, is a basis for part of the analysis of the prior sale in comparison to the current market value. Because of the requirement by the GSEs to use the Market Research and Analysis Form (1004MC), sometimes there are inadequate data within the report to support a trend which might otherwise help paint a picture of an increase (or decline). When there is inadequate data to adequately complete this form, there is nothing stating we cannot include additional information outside of the MC form.

Often, those who look to find fault with an appraisal turn to this section first, because sometimes appraisers do not analyze the data presented in the 1004MC. Boxes may be checked, boilerplate statements may be added, but the data analysis is not summarized. The appraiser knows the market and knows what is occurring, but did not add a summation of the analysis or trends that may be reflected in the data. Are foreclosures and short sales an issue in the market? Appraisers may click the box “yes” yet not report the impact of those foreclosures and short sales in the subject’s market. When analyzing the market conditions, analysis is not a “should,” but a “must.” As appraisers, we are often so busy and it may seem so self-evident, but six months or a year down the line it may be very difficult to remember precisely what was happening in the market at the time. This extra bit of communication of what we observed in the market at the time can be very helpful, not only to our clients, but to ourselves in the event of a challenge to our work, months or even years down the line.

This analysis of the market conditions is used when analyzing the prior sales of the subject, as well as all comparable sales. Currently Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require a minimum 36-month sale and transfer history of the subject to effective date, and 12-months for all comparable sales since their most recent closed date. After September 14, 2015, the FHA requires 36-months for the subject and 36-months for all comparable sales. We are starting to see more ”flipping” again as the market has improved in many parts of the country. There are often examples of houses being purchased below market because they were in need of repair and then rehabbed or renovated, and resold.

Were any of the comparable sales sold previously below market value due to their condition and lack of modernization? Did these houses sell for a higher, similar or even lesser amount after improvement and is this consistent with the market conditions analysis? Sometimes this cannot be determined by looking back 12 or 36-months. Perhaps the comparable prior sale sold 40-months ago, but sold at a similar time as the subject’s prior sale. Would comparing that prior sale to its current sale further support the changing market conditions? Would it support the information presented in the Sales Comparison Approach to value? If the prior sale was a “trashed-out” REO sale and there are photos in the MLS, consider including a few of these photos, in addition to the narrative, as they can add needed support for the change. As appraisers, we may have to go beyond the minimum time and reporting requirements to accurately analyze the prior sales in order to develop credible assignment results.

Analyzing a Sale
How does one analyze a sale? The following is one simple example:
“Comparable sale 1 sold on 01/01/2015 after being exposed to the market for 7 days. It was bank owned, and in need of significant work, including replacement of all cabinetry, flooring, light fixtures and paint. It also needed a new roof and furnace. The water heater was in working order and the electric had previously been upgraded. The house was listed for sale for $99,000 and sold under a bidding war for $105,000. The purchaser of this property gutted what was remaining, replaced cabinetry, flooring, light fixtures and windows, as well as installed new siding, roof, and furnace. The entire interior was painted and the owner had the property staged for sale. It was offered for sale on 06/01/2015 for $225,000 and received three offers according to the listing agent. The house sold in 5 days on the market for $230,000 without concessions. The increase in price of $110,000 was partially related to the increasing market but in larger part due to the remodeling that took place in the interim.”

In this example, the appraiser analyzed the prior sale, then reported this information in the body of their appraisal report. This sale, which would have generated many questions, did not. The appraiser communicated their analysis in writing instead of only keeping notes in the work file. There was no need for questions by the appraisal reviewer, especially since MLS photos showing the prior and current condition were included in the report.

The Working RE story Supporting Market Conditions has one example of how to complete a market analysis outside of the 1004MC form. In short, if there are insufficient data points to provide any type of robust market analysis, include additional information supporting the position of how the market is changing or has changed, before the effective date of the report. Let the client know what has happened in the market since the prior sale of the subject as well as what has happened to the subject itself. Part of our jobs as appraisers is to help clients understand the market.

Should Do/Must Do
The appraiser’s job has changed dramatically in the past 10 years. We are under increased scrutiny by all parties in the mortgage industry as well as state regulators, attorneys and borrowers. Those of us still in the industry are paying for the sins of individuals who were part of various financial crimes, some even appraisers. Many of those who were guilty of these sins were not appraisers, yet many in the industry, the media, and the public insist on pointing the finger at us.

Some of the bad apples left the industry, by their own choice or through the encouragement of their state appraisal licensing boards. Because of this, what once was a “should,” has turned into a “must.” It is important to observe what is at the property and what is happening in the market, analyze that information, and provide at least a short summary of our analysis. Because of the massive amounts of information we are required to know and the constant changes that we see in the industry, sometimes we know much but don’t report enough. Sometimes we have to show our work. By showing our work and including our data analysis, objections and challenges of our reports will be a thing of the past. This is particularly the case related to prior sales of the subject property and the comparable sales included within the report.

Note, this originally appeared with WorkingRE 2.5 years ago, but the sentiment remains very much the same. This has been republished with their permission. Please visit the original at Here if interested.

Ann Arbor snapshot

So many ways to measure

Markets are rarely identical and what happens as a nation isn’t necessarily what happens in a county, or what happens in an area, or even a submarket.

We hear a lot about the improving market conditions that are occurring nationally, but as in all things real estate, the market really is fundamentally local. I live and work in the Ann Arbor market. Not all markets within this area are moving in the same direction, or at the same pace. Even within Ann Arbor there are differences, and the data below represents current information comparing the Ann Arbor school district as a whole to one area within Ann Arbor, area 82, which encompasses a wide market but is the west side of town as well as into the western suburbs and rural area within the Ann Arbor school district.

How can you go about measuring the market? There are a number of different ways, but what I am doing now (and I do change things up as I learn of new techniques) is taking one years’ worth of data at a time, run on a monthly basis and compare and measure how markets change. The data is run as one year periods because it neutralizes the seasonality that you see happening in this area. It is almost clock-work to see our local market start to slow after Labor Day, and to start to pick up in February or March, depending on the weather. In addition to measuring year to year, I have also eliminated from the data below distress sales and “to-be-built” properties because including them skews data. This is addressed in a previous blog post. Depending on the market, it might make sense to include the distress sales but Ann Arbor hasn’t had a lot in general (Thank You University of Michigan) and if they are included the market actually looks like it is picked up more steam than it truly has. Apples-to-Apples with the data below.

My findings are in graphic formats below with a small explanation underneath the graph.

Number of sales

We are seeing an increasing number of sales in both the entire market and area 82. For instance, the one year period of 2011 showed 805 arm’s length sales, and in 2012 there were 939 sales, 2013 had 1,054 sales for the year. Clearly the numbers of sales are increasing. In area 82 our market jumped from 210 sales in 2011 to 260 in 2012 and 299 in 2012. Based on this information the expectation is around 88 sales per month for the entire market and 25 per month for area 82. As there are 139 available properties in the MLS for the entire school district today (2/9/14) and 36 in area 82, there is about a 1.6-month supply for the overall market and 1.45-month supply for area 82. Looks like an undersupply of properties, doesn’t it?

Days on market

The chart above shows the differences in days on the market in both the wider Ann Arbor market and area 82. Area 82 consistently has had quicker absorption than Ann Arbor as a whole, but take a look at how the market dipped in both segments to a low point in June/July 2013 and has been increasing steadily since that time. My take on this is that as inventory has increased (as evidenced by the number of sales above) that there are more options and therefore houses are not selling quite as quickly as they were at the peak in 2013. At this time days on market is still very short with the most recent reading showing 43 as a whole and 35 in area 82. Surprisingly close to the expected absorption rate addressed in the graph above.

There are more graphs and charts that I will examine, but I am going to save that for the next blog post, so as to keep you interested and coming back J. These other indicators include the list price to sales price ratios, median price over time, and median price per square foot. They also include my favorite, the contract-to-listing ratio which some of you are aware of from previous blog posts.

Hope you enjoy this information and find it useful. As always, if you have questions about the market from the perspective of the local appraisal expert, call or write. I am always happy to field whatever calls or emails that I can.

Data above is culled from the Ann Arbor Board of Realtors MLS

Rachel Massey, SRA, AI-RRS www.annarborappraisal.com